Poll Average Details- CA US Senate - R Primary - 2010-06-08 12:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Carly Fiorina Carly FiorinaTom Campbell Carly FiorinaChuck DeVore Carly FiorinaTim Kalemkarian Carly FiorinaAl Ramirez Carly Fiorina
Survey USA6/6X 1.00000   48.0000 22.0000 16.0000 2.0000 2.0000
Field Poll6/2X 0.93333   37.0000 22.0000 19.0000    
Probolsky & Assoc.6/1X 0.91667   40.0000 24.5000 12.9000    
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D)5/26X 0.81667   38.0000 23.0000 16.0000    
Magellan Data & Mapping Strategies (R)5/24X 0.78333   44.0000 21.0000 14.0000    
Public Policy Polling5/23X 0.76667   41.0000 21.0000 16.0000    
Research 20005/19X 0.70000   22.0000 37.0000 14.0000    
Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)5/16X 0.65000   25.0000 23.0000 16.0000    
TOTAL 37.733503 23.935279 15.541878 2.000000 2.000000