Poll Average Details- CA Governor - 2002-11-05 22:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

PollMid DateTime WeightInternal Gray Davis Mosemarie BoydWilliam "Bill" W. Simon, Jr. Peter M. Camejo Gary Copeland Iris Adam Reinhold "Ron" Gulke Art Olivier Anselmo A. Chavez Rob Marinko James F Stewart Jim Mallon Nick Jesson Debbie Jo Terzoli Will B King Nick Hoogoian Nan Bailey
Survey USA11/3X 1.00000   45.0000 - 0.4044 bias 39.0000 - 0.3780 bias 8.0000 - 1.1303 bias 4.0000 - 1.3866 bias                        
Field Poll11/1X 0.96667   55.0000 - 1.9551 bias 45.0000 - 1.3589 bias                            
Los Angeles Times10/27X 0.88333   45.0000 - 4.8655 bias 36.0000 - 1.3341 bias                            
Jan Van Lohuizen10/21X 0.78333   34.2000 - 3.1057 bias 33.7000 - 7.2339 bias                            
Public Policy Institute10/15X 0.68333   41.0000 - 7.7960 bias 31.0000 - -0.6933 bias                            
The Times Poll9/29X 0.41667   45.0000 - 5.5531 bias 35.0000 - -0.3832 bias                            
TOTAL 41.156469 35.611650 6.869700 2.613400 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000