Poll Average Details- AZ Governor - 2002-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Janet Napolitano Janet Napolitano	Matthew J. "Matt" Salmon Matthew J. "Matt" Salmon	Dick Mahoney	Barry J. Hess, II Barry J. Hess, II	Raymond "RayJ" Caplette	D'Herrera Tapia	Leonard D. Talbow	Russell Means	Naida Axford	Carlton Rahmani	Tracey Sturgess
Behavior Research Center	11/1	X 1.00000		42.0000 - 1.2699 bias	40.1000 - -1.1021 bias	6.0000 - -0.2689 bias	2.0000 - 0.0080 bias
Survey USA	10/31	X 0.98333		43.0000 - 0.5274 bias	41.0000 - 0.3265 bias	11.0000 - 1.6199 bias	3.0000 - 1.3296 bias
The Analytical Group	10/28	X 0.93333		42.0000 - 6.9792 bias	37.0000 - 1.6140 bias
Arizona State University	10/22	X 0.83333		46.0000 - 1.2289 bias	38.0000 - -0.8570 bias	5.0000 - -1.3726 bias	1.0000 - 0.1090 bias
Marketing Resource Group	10/4	X 0.53333		39.0000 - 1.9320 bias	36.0000 - -1.2748 bias	6.0000 - 0.7024 bias	1.0000 - 1.9936 bias	1.0000 - 0.7024 bias
Northern Arizona University	9/29	X 0.45000		38.0000 - -0.2921 bias	41.0000 - 2.5498 bias	5.0000 - -1.0458 bias	1.0000 - -1.4408 bias
Fairbanks, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)	9/4	X 0.03333		39.0000 - 2.0785 bias	30.0000 - -0.9285 bias	7.0000 - bias
TOTAL				40.011591	38.773198	6.934564	1.301447	0.297600	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000	0.000000