Poll Average Details- NIC President - 2006-11-05 23:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Daniel Ortega	Eduardo Montealegre	José Rizo	Edmundo Jarquín	Edén "Comandante Cero" Pastora
Gallup	10/23	X 1.00000		33.0000 - 0.3046 bias	22.0000 - -3.4211 bias	17.0000 - -6.4468 bias	13.0000 - 8.6732 bias	1.0000 - 0.8901 bias
Borge & Asociados	10/12	X 0.81667		30.0000 - 0.6422 bias	22.4000 - -0.0993 bias	14.6000 - -7.3755 bias	10.1000 - 6.5892 bias	0.4000 - 0.2434 bias
Universidad Centroamericana (UCA)	10/8	X 0.75000		37.5000 - 4.1623 bias	17.3000 - -9.5205 bias	20.1000 - -3.5791 bias	12.9000 - 8.0840 bias	1.0000 - 0.8534 bias
Zogby International	10/5	X 0.70000		35.0000 - 2.6302 bias	20.0000 - -5.7467 bias	16.0000 - -7.6096 bias	14.0000 - 9.8360 bias	1.0000 - 0.8901 bias
M&R	9/21	X 0.46667		30.9000 - -3.8861 bias	26.4000 - 0.2010 bias	16.3000 - -8.1833 bias	15.9000 - 11.1454 bias	0.9000 - 0.7229 bias
TOTAL				32.294621	25.221373	23.331708	4.269527	0.135888