Poll Average Details- IL Attorney General - 2002-11-05 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Lisa Madigan Lisa Madigan	Joe Birkett Joe Birkett	Gary L. Shilts
Survey USA	10/30	X 1.00000		48.0000 - 0.5274 bias	43.0000 - 0.3265 bias	5.0000 - 1.3296 bias
Chicago Tribune	10/27	X 0.95000		44.0000 - 3.1934 bias	38.0000 - -2.7654 bias	3.0000 - 1.9891 bias
Illinois Wesleyan University	10/22	X 0.86667		42.0000 - -1.2244 bias	40.0000 - 3.4296 bias
Market Shares Corp	10/1	X 0.51667		42.0000 - -0.1166 bias	37.0000 - -0.3029 bias	3.0000 - 1.3747 bias
Zogby International	9/21	X 0.35000		39.0000 - 0.8870 bias	44.5000 - 0.0434 bias
TOTAL				43.113071	40.161435	2.217768