Poll Average Details- AZ US Senate - 2006-11-07 20:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Jon Kyl Michael "Mike" Aloisi	Jim Pederson Jim Pederson	Richard Mack	Raymond "RayJ" Caplette	Stephen Baker The Penny Man
Polimetrix	11/5	X 1.00000		50.0000 - 1.6909 bias	46.0000 - 1.9452 bias
Mason-Dixon	11/3	X 0.96667		49.0000 - 0.8543 bias	41.0000 - 0.4277 bias
Survey USA	11/2	X 0.95000		53.0000 - 0.3265 bias	40.0000 - 0.5274 bias	4.0000 - 1.3296 bias
Zimmerman & Associates	10/30	X 0.90000		45.8000 - -1.0876 bias	41.3000 - 2.4176 bias	3.7000 - 0.9159 bias
Zogby Interactive	10/27	X 0.85000		51.8000 - 0.8374 bias	44.4000 - 0.0637 bias
Arizona State University	10/22	X 0.76667		47.0000 - -0.8570 bias	41.0000 - 1.2289 bias	3.0000 - 0.1090 bias
Northern Arizona University	10/16	X 0.66667		49.0000 - 2.5498 bias	33.0000 - -0.2921 bias	2.0000 - -1.4408 bias
Rasmussen Reports	10/15	X 0.65000		51.0000 - 1.5977 bias	42.0000 - 0.4180 bias
Behavior Research Center	10/3	X 0.45000		45.0000 - -1.1021 bias	36.0000 - 1.2699 bias	2.0000 - 0.0080 bias
Harstad Strategic (D)	9/8	X 0.03333		47.0000 - -1.6540 bias	41.0000 - 3.5038 bias
TOTAL				48.738695	40.098567	2.798912	0.000000	0.000000