Poll Average Details- Toronto Mayor - By-election - 2023-06-26 19:00:00
The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window -
the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0.
If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals
in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively
be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus).
[TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed.
Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.
Poll | Mid Date | Time Weight | Internal |
Olivia Chow | Ana Bailão | Mark Saunders | Anthony Furey | Josh Matlow | Mitzie Hunter | Brad Bradford | Chloe-Marie Brown | Kevin M. Clarke | Monowar Hossain | Giorgio Mammoliti | Weizhen Tang | John Letonja | Anthony Perruzza | Frank D'Amico | Michael Nicula | D!ONNE Renée | Erwin Sniedzins | Jack Weenen | Celina Caesar-Chavannes | Brian Graff | Serge Korovitsyn | Brian Buffey | Logan Choy | Sarah Climenhaga | Kris Langenfeld | Knia Singh | Nathalie Xian Yi Yan | Sandeep Srivastava | Bob Murphy | Sharif Ahmed | Walayat Khan | Syed Jaffery | Habiba Desai | Blake Acton | Reginald Tull | Darren Atkinson | Philip D'Cruze | Cory Deville | Isabella Gamk | Peter Handjis | Kiri Vadivelu | Cleveland Marshall | Thomas Hall | Asad Alam | Willie Reodica | Jose Baking | Frank D'Angelo | Chris Sky | Bahira Abdulsalam | Emmanuel Acquaye | Gru Jesse Allen | Atef Aly | Xiao Hua Gong | Lyall Sanders | Raksheni Sivaneswaran | Dionysios Apostolopoulos | Toby Heaps | Roland Chan | Jamie Atkinson | Eliazar Bonilla | Heather He | Danny Chevalier Romero | Monica Forrester | Mark LeLiever | Faizul Mohee | Patricia Johnston | Gordon Cohen | Ben Bankas | Feng Gao | Ari Grosman | Paul Collins | Jody Williams | Claudette Beals | Mason Carrie | Matti Charlton | Partap Dua Singh | Meir Straus | Samson Deb | Steve Mann | David Gulyas | Michael Lamoureux | Glen Benway | John Winter | Michael Jensen | Robert Shusterman | Scott Furnival | Adil Goraya | James Guglielmin | Simryn Fenby | Rocco Schipano | Jeffery Tunney | Yuanqian Wei | John Ransome | Mitchell Toye | Walter Rubino | Sheila Igodan | Jamil Nowwarah | Daniel Irmya | Rick Lee | Norman MacLeod |
Mainstreet Research | 6/25 | X 1.00000 |
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36.0000 |
30.0000 |
9.0000 |
8.0000 |
8.0000 |
5.0000 |
1.0000 |
1.0000 |
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Liaison Strategies | 6/23 | X 0.96667 |
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31.0000 |
17.0000 |
16.0000 |
11.0000 |
10.0000 |
6.0000 |
4.0000 |
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Forum Research | 6/23 | X 0.96667 |
|
29.0000 |
20.0000 |
15.0000 |
11.0000 |
8.0000 |
5.0000 |
3.0000 |
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Viewpoints Research | 6/19 | X 0.90000 |
|
35.0000 |
12.0000 |
16.0000 |
10.0000 |
10.0000 |
6.0000 |
8.0000 |
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Ipsos | 6/13 | X 0.80000 |
|
38.0000 |
12.0000 |
14.0000 |
7.0000 |
8.0000 |
6.0000 |
6.0000 |
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TOTAL |
33.647482 |
18.597122 |
13.935252 |
9.467626 |
8.805755 |
5.575540 |
4.266187 |
1.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |
0.000000 |