Poll Average Details- IL Governor - 2002-11-05 19:00:00

The Poll Average is a weighted and adjusted number.
[Mid Date Column] All times are calculated by the middle date of the poll if it spans multiple days.
A time window of 2 months prior to the most recent poll is used.
[Time Weight Column] Polls are weighted in the amount they contribute to the final results in a linear fashion in this time window - the newest poll has a weight of 1, a poll 30 days prior will have a weight of 0.5 and a poll 60 days out will have a weight of 0. If the same pollster has more than one poll in this time period, only the newest will be used.
[Internal Column] If a poll is marked as being an internal poll for one of the candidates, it's weight will be halved.
[Candidate Columns, Bias] OurCampaigns has calculated partisan bias figures for all Polling Firms based on data from final vote totals in races they have polled. These amounts are subtracted from the poll result - in the case the bias figure is negative it will effectively be added to the poll result and appear as two dashes (minus a negative = plus). [TOTAL Row] The adjusted weights are summed for each poll result and the adjusted poll results for each candidate are multiplied by the poll weight and then summed. Each candidate's poll sum is divided by their weight sum to give the total.

Poll	Mid Date	Time Weight	Internal	Rod Blagojevich	Jim Ryan	Cal Skinner, Jr.	Marisellis Brown	Peter Dale Kauss
Zogby International	11/1	X 1.00000		43.3000 - 0.8870 bias	43.5000 - 0.0434 bias	3.2000 - 1.6336 bias
Survey USA	10/30	X 0.96667		53.0000 - 0.5274 bias	39.0000 - 0.3265 bias	4.0000 - 1.3296 bias
Chicago Tribune	10/27	X 0.91667		47.0000 - 3.1934 bias	37.0000 - -2.7654 bias	4.0000 - 1.9891 bias
Mason-Dixon	10/25	X 0.88333		49.0000 - 0.4277 bias	40.0000 - 0.8543 bias
Public Opinion Research	10/24	X 0.86667		51.0000 - 2.9366 bias	36.0000 - -1.0426 bias
Chicago Sun-Times	10/24	X 0.86667		50.0000 - 2.6058 bias	38.0000 - 0.9138 bias
Illinois Wesleyan University	10/22	X 0.83333		46.0000 - -1.2244 bias	40.0000 - 3.4296 bias
Daily Southtown	10/22	X 0.83333		51.3000 - 6.3022 bias	36.4000 - -3.5644 bias
Pantagraph	10/18	X 0.76667		53.0000 - 1.8194 bias	39.0000 - -0.6914 bias	2.0000 - 0.0424 bias
Market Shares Corp	10/1	X 0.48333		51.0000 - -0.1166 bias	35.0000 - -0.3029 bias	2.0000 - 1.3747 bias
Cooper & Secrest Associates (D)	9/5	X 0.05000		45.0000 - 0.6284 bias	31.0000 - -0.2690 bias
TOTAL				47.473612	38.852581	1.885685	0.000000	0.000000