The by-election seems to be a very safe Tory hold. I expect the LibDems and Greens to do a little bit better than what they did in 2019 and I expect Richard Tice, the leader of Reform/Brexit to lose his deposit.

I don't know if I agree about Tice. All he needs to get is 5% of the vote to not lose his deposit. That seems like a a low bar. Could be close since this is metro London....but still seems very doable.

kind of a surprise that they're not gonna hold the Bexley/Sidcup and Southend West by-elections on the same day. Obviously wouldn't save any money but since a bunch of parties aren't contesting Southend West, having that on the same day as Bexley&Sidcup would make sense.