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Pollster Who Predicted 2016 Win Predicts Another Trump Victory
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PollingFirm
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| Contributor | BrentinCO |
| Last Edited | BrentinCO Oct 19, 2020 04:57pm |
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| Category | Perspective |
| Author | John Hawkins |
| News Date | Friday, October 16, 2020 10:55:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Just as they did in 2016, most political professionals are predicting that Biden will win the election. In a conventional race, given the poll numbers, that would be understandable. Of course, Trump defied the odds and won in 2016 against Hillary. Could the same thing happen this year? The lead pollster for Trafalgar, who got it right in 2016, thinks it will.
Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s lead pollster believes there are a large number of “shy” Trump voters out there that aren’t being honest with pollsters about who they’re voting for. Trafalgar has a system to account for those voters and believes it puts Trump in front in a number of swing states that other polls show him to be losing. Here’s Hot Air with a breakdown of the latest state polls from Trafalgar:
Via RCP, here are the latest Trafalgar numbers from battlegrounds (although bear in mind that some of these are close to a month old):
Florida: Trump by two
Pennsylvania: Biden by two
Wisconsin: Biden by three
North Carolina: Trump by two
Michigan: Trump by one
Ohio: Trump by four
Arizona: Trump by four
If all of those results held on Election Day, assuming no unlikely Biden victories elsewhere, Trump would win 276-262. That’s right in line with Cahaly’s forecast for the election, which he delivers to Pesca at 26:00 of the clip below — Trump in the mid-270 range. |
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