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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Merkel's road to a third term could be rocky
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Race
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| Contributor | IndyGeorgia |
| Last Edited | IndyGeorgia Jul 07, 2013 10:46am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | Noah Barkin |
| Media | News Service - Reuters |
| News Date | Sunday, July 7, 2013 04:45:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | The German election is still more than two months away but for many the vote's final chapter has already been written.
Angela Merkel, it is widely assumed, is cruising to a third victory at the polls. When she wins, the thinking goes, there will be few, if any, major changes to German policy.
The vote could well play out according to script. Merkel's conservatives hold a dominant 16-19 point lead over the next strongest party, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), and recent polls suggest she may be able to renew her centre-right coalition with the Free Democrats (FDP) after September 22nd.
But should she fail to secure a parliamentary majority with the FDP, the election aftermath is likely to be far messier than many casual observers of German politics presume.
In this scenario, Merkel would probably have to pay a very heavy price in terms of policy concessions to stay in the Chancellery.
And her exit could not be ruled out. In a note this week, J.P. Morgan analyst Alex White put the chance Merkel will be booted out of office after the election at 20 percent. |
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