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Poll: Romney five points ahead of Obama in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Oct 13, 2012 05:07pm |
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| Category | News |
| Author | Christopher Cousins |
| News Date | Friday, October 12, 2012 11:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is poised to win one of Maine’s electoral votes if the results of a poll released Thursday hold true through the Nov. 6 election.
The Maine Democratic Party quickly criticized the poll’s results because of high-level Republican operatives behind it and the fact that the raw poll data have not been released.
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, in the northern part of the state, supports Romney over President Barack Obama by 5 percentage points, 49 percent to 44 percent, a result that according to a story by Politico is outside the NMB Research poll’s margin of error. On a statewide basis, Obama leads 48 percent to 44 percent, which means he would get two of Maine’s four electoral votes. Obama also presumably would win the 1st District, giving him a third electoral vote in Maine.
Maine is one of only two states in the country that splits its electoral vote by congressional district. If Romney wins in the north, he would receive one of Maine’s four electoral votes, which given the closeness of the race conceivably could tip the results in Romney’s favor. According to a New York Times polling analysis blog called FiveThirtyEight, the probability that Maine’s 2nd Congressional District could decide the election stood at 0.7 percent as of Thursday, a scenario that ranked 10th as a probable outcome among battleground states. The likelihood that the electoral vote could be decided in first-place Ohio, by comparison, was about 44 percent, according to the blog. Maine has not voted for a Republican in a presidential election since 1988.
Politico reports that Glen Bolger of NMB Research polled 500 likely voters on Oct. 7 and 8, giving the poll a margin of error of about 4 percent. It was unknown how many of the people polled were from the 2nd District." |
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