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Gallup Poll's Muddled Monday: Is Obama Even Or 5 Points Ahead?
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Race
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Oct 08, 2012 04:58pm |
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| Category | News |
| Author | Mark Blumenthal |
| Media | Website - Huffington Post |
| News Date | Monday, October 8, 2012 10:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "Early Monday morning, Gallup released the latest results of its national daily tracking poll, showing President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a tie, with both men supported by 47 percent of registered voters. Just three days before, Gallup also noted, Obama had led Romney by five percentage points (50 percent to 45 percent).
Then at 1 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, Gallup updated its daily tracking results again, this time showing Obama once more leading Romney by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).
Huh? Did Obama somehow regain 5 points on Monday morning?
Not exactly, but Gallup's Monday afternoon update suggests the initial bounce that Romney received from last week's presidential debate may already be starting to fade.
In showing Obama and Romney tied in its initial Monday morning release, Gallup broke from its typical practice of reporting presidential vote preference on a seven-day rolling average and instead compared vote preference on two sets of three-day averages. Looking at the results from interviews conducted Oct. 1 to 3 (just before the debate) and the results from interviews conducted Oct. 4 to 6 (just after), Gallup found the race had narrowed from a five-point Obama lead to dead even." |
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