|
|
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
|
FiveThirtyEight Forecast: G.O.P. Senate Hopes Slipping
|
|---|
| Parent(s) |
Race
|
| Contributor | Homegrown Democrat |
| Last Edited | Homegrown Democrat Sep 18, 2012 04:20pm |
| Logged |
0
|
| Category | Analysis |
| Author | Nate Silver |
| News Date | Tuesday, September 18, 2012 06:50:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which control of the chamber appeared about equally likely to go either way.
An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. Republicans have about a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance, giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a filibuster-proof majority.
But the odds of a favorable overall outcome for Democrats have increased in recent weeks. The forecast model now gives them a 70 percent chance of controlling the chamber, either by having at least 50 seats and the presidency, or 51 without it. |
| Share |
|
|
2¢
|
|
| Article | Read Full Article |
|
| Date |
Category |
Headline |
Article |
Contributor |
|
|
