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  Another Day, Another Democrat-Heavy Poll Sample
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Last EditedScott³  Aug 02, 2012 07:49pm
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AuthorJim Geraghty
News DateThursday, August 2, 2012 01:00:00 AM UTC0:0
Description"Much of the day’s campaign coverage is likely to be driven by the New York Times’ latest poll in swing states:

President Barack Obama hits the magic 50 percent mark against Gov. Mitt Romney among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, with wide support for his plan to hike federal income taxes on upper-income voters, according to a Quinnipiac University/ CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll released today.

This is the first measure of likely voters in these swing states and cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters. Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them – shows:
Florida: Obama edges Romney 51– 45 percent;

Ohio: Obama over Romney by a slim 50 – 44 percent;

Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 53 – 42 percent.

If Obama surging to a better position among likely voters than among registered voters seems odd to you… it’s because it is. “As an empirical matter, Republicans do better among likely voters since the GOP draws from high turnout groups like seniors, while Democrats depend on constituencies with low turnout rates, like young voters and Latinos. With an impressive slate of historical polling data, Nate Silver found that shifting to likely voters causes a 1.5 point swing toward the GOP.”
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