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Florida's population growth could spur electoral free-for-all
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| Contributor | IndyGeorgia |
| Last Edited | IndyGeorgia Mar 18, 2011 05:46pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | Marc Caputo |
| News Date | Thursday, March 17, 2011 11:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Congressman Jeff Kottkamp? How about Congresswoman Paula Dockery?
It looks like the two Republicans live in the perfect spots to take advantage of two new Congressional seats Florida could gain because of population growth, according to consultants and political maps based on new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The maps, released Thursday by the Legislature, don’t spell out the location of the new districts. But the Legislature will decide that next January when it meets to redraw congressional and legislative districts to ensure that politicians represent equal populations.
The redistricting process is the ultimate political game, with lawmakers slicing and dicing portions of the electorate to gain an edge at the ballot box. Complicating the already complicated process: two new voter-approved constitutional amendments aimed at limiting legislators from favoring incumbents or political parties when they redistrict.
The amendments, in conjunction with a new court ruling over minority voting rights, are sure to make for a tough court fight after the Legislature finishes its redistricting work. Regardless of what the courts decide, the entire 160-member Legislature will be up for re-election in 2012, as will each member of Congress.
All of it adds up to a political free-for-all.
“Until you can figure out what that all means, trying to figure out what the districts will look like is like playing fantasy baseball,” said Rich Heffley, a Republican political consultant.
In 2012, Florida should have 27 congressional seats – two more than the current number – with populations of about 696,000. Right now, Republicans hold 19 seats; Democrats 6.
A quick gander of the political maps suggests that Miami-Dade and Pinellas counties are good bets to lose state House seats. Palm Beach County could lose a resident state senator. And the Miami-based congressional district held by Republican Rep. David Rivera could get cut at the Collier County |
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