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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Why the polls got the Lib Dems wrong in 2010
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | Ralphie |
| Last Edited | Ralphie Oct 12, 2010 11:06am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | Anthony Wells |
| News Date | Sunday, October 10, 2010 05:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Everytime we get an ICM poll it produces a lot of people commenting on the big difference between the level of support the Lib Dems get. I intend returning to that at some point in the future, but as background for considering how the polls represent the Lib Dems though, we really need to work out why all the polls got them wrong at the general election.
All of the companies who released polls within a few days of the general election overstated the level of Lib Dem support, by between 2 and 5 points, but the reasons are still unclear, and will probably remain so until pollsters get to test their methods against the next general election. Basically the possible reasons boil down to reasons of people changing their intentions, pollsters misjudging their intentions, or pollsters polling unrepresentative groups of people. |
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