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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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[PA-10/11] Expert guessers see upside-down 10th, 11th
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Race
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Aug 01, 2010 09:33pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | RODERICK RANDOM |
| News Date | Sunday, August 1, 2010 03:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "If you believe the Washington guys, you're about to elect Lou Barletta your next congressman.
Almost all of the D.C. political newsletters have his race against Democratic Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski starting to tilt toward the Republican Hazleton mayor, despite the huge voter registration edge that continues to favor the incumbent.
As of the May primary, the 11th Congressional District was 57.5 percent Democratic, 30.6 percent Republican and 11.7 percent independents or some other party.
That is one big Democratic margin, but remember that Mr. Kanjorski only won by 3.2 percentage points in 2008, a clearly Democratic year. This one is shaping up as a Republican year.
Even Mr. Kanjorski seems to think he's in trouble. Just as Mr. Barletta has been sharper in his attacks compared to 2008, Mr. Kanjorski's hired gun, Ed Mitchell, has wailed on Mr. Barletta earlier and more often, too, knocking as never before the way the mayor runs his city.
Maybe the 13-term congressman is in trouble. Maybe he is down 19 points, as Mr. Barletta's poll said a couple of weeks ago.
Who knows?
As we pointed out last week, you should be skeptical of the only poll numbers available so far because it's candidate-funded and publicly incomplete.
Maybe the political newsletter guys have some inside info that we don't, though we doubt that. We think that, for the most part, if you want to know what's up, ask somebody you trust what they think of the candidates.
You're just as likely to get a good idea of where the race stands that way.
Truth is, in the absence of an independent poll in the 11th - and Terry Madonna of Franklin & Marshall College is considering one this fall - we're all guessing more or less, going on gut feeling." |
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