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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Research 2000: Problems in plain sight
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| Parent(s) |
PollingFirm
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| Contributor | RBH |
| Last Edited | RBH Jun 29, 2010 12:26pm |
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| Category | Blog Entry |
| Author | kos |
| Media | Website - Daily Kos |
| News Date | Tuesday, June 29, 2010 06:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | For the past year and a half, Daily Kos has been featuring weekly poll results from the Research 2000 (R2K) organization. These polls were often praised for their "transparency", since they included detailed cross-tabs on sub-populations and a clear description of the random dialing technique. However, on June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight.com rated R2K as among the least accurate pollsters in predicting election results. Daily Kos then terminated the relationship.
One of us (MG) wondered if odd patterns he had noticed in R2K's reports might be connected with R2K's mediocre track record, prompting our investigation of whether the reports could represent proper random polling. We've picked a few initial tests partly based on which ones seemed likely to be sensitive to problems and partly based on what was easy to read by eye before we automated the data download. This posting is a careful initial report of our findings, not intended to be a full formal analysis but rather to alert people not to rely on R2K's results. We've tried to make the discussion intelligible to the lay reader while maintaining a reasonable level of technical rigor. |
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