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  Prepare Yourselves for Speaker Boehner
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ContributorJohn 
Last EditedJohn  Jun 18, 2010 03:04pm
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CategoryCommentary
MediaWeekly News Magazine - New Republic, The
News DateFriday, June 18, 2010 09:00:00 PM UTC0:0
DescriptionEarth to House Democrats: It’s time to push the panic button. But don’t take my word for it; consider the evidence.

Exhibit A: One of the country’s savviest political scientists, Emory’s Alan Abramowitz, has just published an analysis that says the GOP will pick up 39 seats in the House this November. On the good news side for Democrats, Abramowitz finds more safe seats this year than in 1994 (145 versus 114) and fewer that are marginal (42 versus 55) or that lean Republican (69 versus 87). And there are only 15 open seats this year in Republican-leaning districts, versus 24 in 1994. On this basis he concludes that a Republican tide as strong as it was in 1994 would yield fewer losses for Democrats, but still enough to lose their majority by the narrowest of margins.
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