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North Korea’s Exit Strategy
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| Contributor | RP |
| Last Edited | RP May 26, 2010 05:02pm |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Author | Takashi Yokota |
| Media | Magazine - Newsweek |
| News Date | Wednesday, May 26, 2010 11:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | While Kim is publicly holding firm, behind the scenes his government seems to be trying to find a way out of the fracas. Its language has become more moderate, it may be contemplating an apology, and it may already have punished a naval commander in connection with the torpedo attack. That means the crisis is likely to fall far short of the "all-out war" the North initially promised. The softer side of Kim Jong-il's regime, it seems, wants out of this crisis, stat.
While its positions remain unbending, the North Korean leadership toned down the bellicose rhetoric in its government statements—the key indicator of Pyongyang's intentions. As the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK) promised that sanctions would elicit "merciless punishment" last Friday, it clarified (speaking, it said, on behalf of the North Korean government) that "merciless punishment" meant little more than freezing inter-Korean relations and cooperation, as well as scrapping the North-South nonaggression agreement. (Those things came to pass this Tuesday anyway.) The same day, a statement from the foreign ministry larded with the usual fireworks—it blasted the "hostile policy" of the United States—also ended by claiming that the North's policy to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula remains unchanged.
As the South Koreans have given vent to their anger since March, they've also made sure to offer the North a way out of this crisis. After all, Seoul can't afford to get involved in a military standoff; it is hosting the G-20 summit this fall, as well as the next Nuclear Security Summit in 2012. So when South Korean President Lee Myung-bak laid out his responses to the sinking on Monday, he also demanded that Pyongyang "apologize and punish those responsible for the attack," suggesting that Seoul is ready to resolve the issue if the North comes clean. |
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