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  Noemi Sanin: Madame President or the eternal candidate?
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Last Edited411 Name Removed  Mar 22, 2010 09:26pm
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CategoryAnalysis
AuthorGustavo Silva Cano
News DateTuesday, March 23, 2010 03:25:00 AM UTC0:0
DescriptionNoemí Sanín is one of the most resilient politicians in Colombia. The only woman who has ever had a shot at winning the presidency of the country, Ms. Sanín is a smart political player who knows how to reinvent herself. Even though she has spent a lot of time outside the country in recent years, Ms. Sanín has always managed to remain relevant in Colombian politics. Last year, when she returned to Colombia to run for president yet again, Ms. Sanín was able to create a storm that threatened to divide the Conservative Party. For somebody who had never been democratically elected for anything until last week, Ms. Sanín’s ability to stir popular support is truly remarkable. Undoubtedly, she is a natural politician of outstanding capacity.

Since that day, a few media outlets have been too quick to overstate Ms. Sanín’s possibilities of making it to the runoff election. Ms. Sanín is now the natural leader of the Conservative Party, which remains the country’s second largest political force. Her chances in the presidential election are excellent, considering that she will have the powerful Conservative machinery behind her and that in recent weeks she has had lots of exposure in the media. Ms. Sanín is without a doubt one of Colombia’s most well-known politicians and she is starting her campaign as the official Conservative candidate from a position of strength.

But none of that means that she will make it to the second round of the presidential election. Of course, she could. However, I can’t help but notice that the last opinion poll, issued at the beginning of this month, showed that Ms. Sanín had a mere 5% of the votes. Of course, a lot has changed since then, as there is now a newly elected Congress and she has become the official candidate of her party. Yet, I can’t see how Ms. Sanín could more than double her voter intention (which is what she has to do in order to get to the runoff election) in such a short time.
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