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Young voters, independents pose problems for Obama
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Candidate
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Dec 06, 2009 09:44pm |
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| Category | Poll |
| Author | Julie Mason |
| News Date | Monday, December 7, 2009 03:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | "Having given himself a bit of political breathing room on Afghanistan and health care, President Obama is shifting focus to the economy, where he needs to show improvement in time for the 2010 elections.
But also worrisome to Democrats are some fissures emerging in Obama's winning, 2008 political coalition -- specifically eroding support among young voters and independents -- in part because of the president's economic agenda.
Those trends, combined with the results of the 2009 off-year elections that saw Republican gains in key states, suggest Obama's ability to recreate the sense of mission from his 2008 race in the midterms could be limited.
"Democrats don't seem energized the way they were in 2008," said Terry Madonna, a political scientist and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. "And it's not so much that Republican turnout is up, it's that Democratic turnout is down."
Obama in January had a 74 percent approval rating among voters aged 18 to 29. Last month, his rating among the same group was 61 percent -- still strong, but on a persistent, downward trajectory.
More ominous are independents, who gave Obama a 62 percent approval rating in January and dropped their support to 44 percent by November. Exit polling from gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia last month showed independents surging toward Republican candidates -- who won in both states.
"Democrats have put themselves at a huge disadvantage with independents because of the unprecedented spending and this unified control of government," said John Avlon, an expert on independent voters and author of the forthcoming book, "Attack of the Wingnuts."
Madonna said he saw similar political shifts in Pennsylvania, where Republicans won six of seven statewide contests in November, less than a year after Obama carried the state in the presidential race.
"Independents shifted to the Republican side, the same as you saw in Virginia and New Jersey..." |
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