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Divide (Electoral Votes) and Conquer? No, Obama Still Won
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Race
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| Contributor | ArmyDem |
| Last Edited | ArmyDem Mar 18, 2009 12:27pm |
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| Category | News |
| News Date | Wednesday, March 18, 2009 06:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
What if the 2008 presidential election had been re-run using a district-based system of awarding electoral votes — used only in two states — instead of the winner-take-all method that every other state uses?
The answer is that Barack Obama still would have beaten John McCain , though the Electoral College tally would have been closer than the actual 365-173 margin of victory.
According to a CQ Politics analysis, Obama would have beaten McCain 301-237 using a district-based system, under which a candidate receives two electoral votes for winning a state and one electoral vote for every congressional district he or she wins. Only Maine and Nebraska allocate electoral votes in this fashion.
The analysis found that Obama won 242 districts and McCain won 193 districts. Obama also posted another 59 electoral votes by carrying 28 states and the District of Columbia, which is entitled to three electoral votes under the 23rd Amendment. McCain would have received another 44 electoral votes as a result of winning 22 states.
The reason for this discrepancy is that Obama dominated the vote in the most populous states but won his districts more overwhelmingly than did McCain. A district-based system would be less favorable to Obama because his supermajorities in districts would be unneeded surpluses.
In Florida, McCain won 15 of the 25 districts even though Obama prevailed statewide and won all 27 electoral votes. Obama took more than 60 percent of the vote in six of the 10 districts he won, while McCain exceeded that threshold in just two of the 15 districts he won. |
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