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For Dems, Demographics Are Not Destiny
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| Parent(s) |
Party
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Mar 17, 2009 12:35pm |
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| Category | Opinion |
| News Date | Tuesday, March 17, 2009 06:30:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | RealClearPolitics
"Into the early 1930s, Republicans took for granted that black voters would stay with the party of Lincoln. After World War II, many liberals believed increasing unionization ensured sustained white working class support for Democrats. By 1960, Republicans were coming to count on women's loyalty. More women backed Richard Nixon than John. F. Kennedy. In politics, over the long term, demographics are not destiny.
Last week, in a Center for American Progress report, the influential liberal analyst Ruy Teixeira returned to the 2008 vote and exit polls. Teixeira focused the first two thirds of the paper on demographics. "A new progressive America is on the rise," he concluded.
By now, the political class is familiar with the trends Teixeira highlighted. The mountain west turned blue. Democrats won the industrial Midwest. Hispanics and youth voted two-to-one for Democrats. Nearly every black voter backed Barack Obama. Democrats won college graduates for the first time since Ronald Reagan came to Washington.
The nation's two big demographic trends, the browning of America and the educating of America, are boding badly for Republicans. That's the horizon of American politics today. But the catch about looking over the horizon is that you can't be quite sure of what you've seen until you get there.
Hispanics' support for Democrats may, in fact, have peaked. This White House is certainly in no rush to traverse the political minefield of immigration reform. Obama's historic levels of black and youth support will almost surely lessen when Obama is no longer atop Democratic ballots.
The Democratic dominance of the millennial generation may prove especially fleeting, if taken for granted. George W. Bush and the war in Iraq were strong incentives for voters under age 30 to ditch the GOP. But Bush is now gone. Americans have turned their focus from national security to the economy. And in time the millennial generation will get married, ..." |
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