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Poll finds Castle beating Carney for House seat
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| Contributor | Scott³ |
| Last Edited | Scott³ Mar 13, 2009 10:50pm |
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| Category | Poll |
| Media | Newspaper - Wilmington (DE) News Journal |
| News Date | Saturday, March 14, 2009 04:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Wilmington News Journal.
"Former Lt. Gov. John Carney could be the Democrats' best chance at dethroning nine-term U.S. Rep. Mike Castle, according to poll results released Thursday.
Carney, who has hinted at making a congressional bid in 2010, lagged behind Castle by 17 points in the poll of 782 Delaware voters -- a gap politicos say isn't insurmountable.
The poll, conducted this week by North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, found that 49 percent of respondents supported Castle to Carney's 32 percent, with 19 percent undecided. Some of the largest undecided populations were black voters and women, groups that have historically voted Democratic.
Sam Hoff, Delaware State University political science professor, said Castle's not passing the 50 percent threshold should come as good news to Carney. Nonetheless, he estimated a serious opponent to Castle would have raise at least $500,000 to avoid being spent out of the race. Carney raised -- and spent -- more than $780,000 last year during his unsuccessful gubernatorial primary against Jack Markell.
Public Policy Polling representative Tom Jenson agreed that closing the 17-point gap would take a lot of money, but pointed to last year's North Carolina Senate race between incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan as proof it can be done. Dole was polling 17 points ahead nine months before the election, Jenson said, but ultimately lost.
And the fact that 35 percent said they were unsure of their opinions of Delaware's two-term lieutenant governor actually could work in Carney's favor -- all those undecideds are voters he could gain during a campaign.
Castle beats Coons, too
The independent polling group also asked participants about a hypothetical matchup between Castle and New Castle County Executive Chris Coons. Castle received 56 percent compared with Coons' 21 percent, with 23 percent undecided. |
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