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How Undecideds Split, 1948-2004
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | ArmyDem |
| Last Edited | ArmyDem Nov 03, 2008 09:35am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| News Date | Monday, November 3, 2008 03:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | By Charles Franklin
Another look at how undecided voters have ultimately voted. There is much speculation about this, and I've offered a bit of empirical evidence. Here is a historical look.
The National Election Study (NES) is the leading academic study of electoral behavior, originally developed at the University of Michigan but now managed by a broad board from many universities.
The NES got it's start in 1948 when, by a lucky break, the Michigan scholars conducted a foreign policy survey in the fall during the campaign. The survey was not directed to the election, but did include a vote choice item. And then Truman won, and the Michigan survey got it right. So they went back and reinterviewed everyone from the pre-election survey to try to throw light on how the vote came to and what it could help explain about the other polls that got it wrong.
In 1952, the Michigan group developed a new, specifically election oriented, survey. Once more they interviewed before the election and then reinterviewed the same respondents after the election.
[snip]
I think the most important result for this Tuesday is that the last 60 years give little support for a massively lopsided vote among undecided. At most, a 2-1 split is as good as it gets. |
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