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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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Allocating the Undecideds
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| Parent(s) |
Race
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| Contributor | ArmyDem |
| Last Edited | ArmyDem Sep 22, 2008 06:21pm |
| Logged |
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| Category | Blog Entry |
| News Date | Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Heretofore, I've simply been allocating undecided voters 50:50. That is certainly the most neutral assumption to make. But this site isn't about making the most neutral assumption, it's about making the most predictive one.
So what I'm going to do instead is tie the undecided allocation to the extent to which Barack Obama overperformed or underperformed his polls in particular types of states in the Democratic primaries. If you compare the actual results in the primaries to the final RCP or Pollster.com averages, you'll notice some fairly systematic differences.
[snip]
So what I've done is to transform the results of the regression analysis that I described above into an undecided voter allocation for each state. The allocation is "rigged" such that neither candidate will gain or lose ground in the national popular vote as a result, and such that the range of allocations runs from about .35 to .65. That is, in some states we'll allocate as much as 65% of the undecided vote to John McCain (and just 35% to Barack Obama) and in others we'll allocate as much as 65% to Obama (and just 35% to McCain).
The specific allocations follow. Remember, these are based on the extent to which Obama over- or underperformed his polls in various states during the primaries:
Percent of Undecided Votes Allocated to Barack Obama
DC 64.4%
MS 64.4%
GA 63.0%
MD 61.5%
SC 61.1%
AL 60.9%
NC 58.0%
VA 57.8%
IN 57.8%
IA 56.9%
AR 56.8%
OK 56.5%
WI 56.5%
DE 53.7%
AK 53.4%
WA 52.7%
FL 52.4%
TN 52.3%
CO 51.8%
MO 51.6%
MI 51.5%
KS 51.4%
OR 51.0%
LA 50.7%
UT 50.6%
HI 50.5%
MN 50.2%
NE 49.8%
TX 48.3%
IL 48.3%
MT 48.0%
OH 47.2%
NV 46.7%
WY 46.6%
SD 46.4%
AZ 46.0%
ND 45.5%
ID 45.4%
NJ 45.0%
PA 44.8%
CT 44.6%
NY 44.6%
VT 43.7%
KY 43.4%
CA 42.9%
ME 42.6%
NH 42.2%
MA 41.0%
NM 40.0%
WV 38.6%
RI 35.0% |
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