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Stunning new sea level rise research, Part 1: “Most likely” 0.8 to 2.0 meters by 2100
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| Contributor | ArmyDem |
| Last Edited | ArmyDem Sep 05, 2008 12:55pm |
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| Category | Blog Entry |
| News Date | Friday, September 5, 2008 06:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Two major new studies, in Nature and Science, sharply increase the projected sea level rise (SLR) by 2100. This post discusses the Science study, “Kinematic Constraints on Glacier Contributions to 21st-Century Sea-Level Rise” (subs req’d), which concludes:
On the basis of calculations presented here, we suggest that an improved estimate of the range of SLR to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0.8 and 2.0 m.
… these values give a context and starting point for refinements in SLR forecasts on the basis of clearly defined assumptions and offer a more plausible range of estimates than those neglecting the dominant ice dynamics term.
Scientific analysis is finally catching up to scientific observation. In 2001, the IPCC projected that neither Greenland nor Antarctica would lose significant mass by 2100. The IPCC made the same basic projection again in 2007. Yet both ice sheets already are. As Penn State climatologist Richard Alley said in March 2006, the ice sheets appear to be shrinking “100 years ahead of schedule.”
So for over a year now, delayers like Bjørn Lomborg have been able to cling to (a misrepresentation of) the IPCC’s lowball SLR estimate (see “Debunking Bjørn Lomborg — Part II, Misrepresenting Sea Level Rise.” Science’s Richard Kerr explained what the IPCC did wrong and what the new study does right: |
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