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  In Virginia, Thawing a Map
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ContributorArmyDem 
Last EditedArmyDem  Jul 15, 2008 11:14pm
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CategoryCommentary
MediaNewspaper - Washington Post
News DateWednesday, July 16, 2008 05:00:00 AM UTC0:0
DescriptionBy E. J. Dionne Jr.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008; Page A19

RUTHER GLEN, Va. -- If the 2008 election is destined to break up a frozen electoral map, Virginia is one of the most likely venues for the great political thaw.

The state has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 44 years, yet the trends are decidedly in the party's favor. Demographic change, often a driver of realignment, is occurring at a furious clip.

The Old Dominion is now the New Dominion, particularly in the suburban and exurban counties north of the Rappahannock River. Barack Obama could not have carried Virginia as it once was. But he is running even with John McCain in a paradoxical state that was home to the Confederacy's capital but also gave the nation its first elected African American governor, Doug Wilder, in 1989.

And no other state can boast that it has had three plausible names on the list of potential vice presidential choices: its current governor, Tim Kaine; former governor Mark Warner; and Sen. Jim Webb.

Only Kaine has stayed in the running. Warner's withdrawal was not surprising. He had already announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate and leads Jim Gilmore, a former Republican governor, by as much as 2 to 1 in some polls.
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