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Could Obama Win S.C., But Get No Bounce?
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Race
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| Contributor | Brandonius Maximus |
| Last Edited | Brandonius Maximus Jan 26, 2008 11:52am |
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| Category | Analysis |
| Media | TV News - Columbia Broadcasting System CBS News |
| News Date | Saturday, January 26, 2008 05:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | Heading into Saturday's South Carolina Democratic primary, Barack Obama is under pressure to win. After a historic victory in Iowa, he was upset by Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire and then went on to lose in Nevada - making the Palmetto State contest Obama's last chance to gain some momentum headed into 21 contests on Feb. 5.
Yet the peculiarities of the South Carolina campaign - one marked by furious sparring between Obama and both Bill and Hillary Clinton - and the nature of the expectations game may have combined to put a unique burden on the Illinois senator, one that requires him to not only exceed expectations but also exceed them in a certain way.
Polls leading up to Saturday's vote show Obama leading Clinton by about 10 percentage points. But those same polls also show a significant "race gap" in Obama's support. While he holds a commanding lead among the state's African American voters, who are expected to make up about half of Saturday's electorate, his support among white voters is much lower, sometimes as low as 10 percent.
Those figures have prompted a discussion that would have seemed unthinkable the night Obama delivered a victory speech in front of an overwhelmingly white crowd in Iowa: Could he come out of South Carolina the victor, but also marginalized as a candidate who appeals primarily to black voters? |
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