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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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The 13 Keys to the White House: Why the Democrats Will Win
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Race
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| Contributor | J.R. |
| Last Edited | J.R. Jan 20, 2008 02:11pm |
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| Category | Speculative |
| News Date | Thursday, October 4, 2007 08:00:00 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
Even without counting a single economic key against the incumbent Republicans, they currently have a seven key deficit, one more than necessary to predict their defeat in 2008.
The following Keys currently count against the incumbent party.
The party’s losses in the 2006 midterm elections topple Mandate Key 1.
The battle to replace George W. Bush costs the party Contest Key 2.
Bush’s inability to run again in 2008 dooms Incumbency Key 3.
The lack of a second-term policy revolution forfeits Policy Change Key 7.
The disaster in Iraq costs the administration both Foreign/Military Success Key 9 and Failure Key 10.
No GOP candidate equals the charisma of Ronald Reagan or the heroic stature of Dwight Eisenhower, toppling Charisma/National Hero Key 12.
The following three Keys currently favor the incumbent Republican Party.
The absence of social upheavals comparable to the 1960’s, avoids the loss of Social Unrest Key 8.
The failure of scandals to impact the president directly keeps Scandal Key 9 from falling against the GOP.
The Democratic challenger is unlikely to match the charisma of Franklin D. Roosevelt or John F. Kennedy, keeping the Challenger Charisma/Hero Key 13 in line for the incumbents.
The following Keys are uncertain:
Third Party Key 4 depends on whether New York City mayor and billionaire Michael Bloomberg, who switched from Republican to independent, chooses to run an insurgent campaign for president.
Short-Term Economy Key 5 and Long-Term Economy Key 6 depend upon uncertain economic forecasts for the upcoming year. |
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