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Taxes may be key in 38th District Race next year
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| Contributor | *crickets chirp* |
| Last Edited | *crickets chirp* Dec 13, 2002 09:22am |
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| Category | General |
| Media | Website - PoliticsNJ.com |
| News Date | Friday, December 13, 2002 03:22:49 PM UTC0:0 |
| Description | By STEVE KORNACKI
December 12 - On Saturday, Assemblywoman Rose Heck (R-Hasbrouck Heights) is holding what amounts to an open-audition for Republicans interested in running for the Assembly from the 38th District. She's asked all would-be legislators to address her annual holiday breakfast.
With two GOP ballot slots open and more than a dozen prospective candidates, party members must consider carefully which possible nominees make the best fits for the quirky 38th.
"It tends to be tough territory for Republicans," said Steven Salmore, a research professor at Farleigh Dickinson University and a GOP consultant. "It was the home of the Reagan Democrats for a while, but that's over now, and most of them have gone back into the fold."
From the banks of the Hudson River just across the George Washington Bridge, the 38th snakes through 13 southern Bergen County communities all the way to the Passaic River. Its odd and unique shape in many ways mimics its politics. To the north, is the reliably Republican 39th District, and to the south and east is the solidly Democratic 37th.
Just as it does geographically, the 38th falls somewhere between the two when it comes to politics. Last month, it helped elect Democrat Dennis McNerney as the new Bergen County Executive.
But it has also backed Republicans. Heck has represented the district in the Assembly since 1991. She has announced that she will challenge State Sen. Joseph Coniglio (D-Paramus) next year. Coniglio won the Senate seat last year, besting Republican Louis F. Kosco, who had held the seat for 10 years.
But some say the 2001 legislative redistricting has changed the 38th, with the addition of the heavily Democratic towns of Fort Lee and Fair Lawn making the Republicans' task that much tougher.
"The new district is quite different than the old district," said Paul J. Contillo, a Democrat who represented the 38th in the Senate from 1984 to 1992 and in the Assembly from 1974 to 1980. "I think it is very difficult for a Republican to win in the district now."
While party registration might favor the Democrats, Contillo acknowledged that there is one issue that can neutralize any party advantage: taxes.
"My strong suit was ethics, clean government and clean air, and I think people truly care about those things," Contillo, 73, said. "But I think unfortunately, the tax issue becomes primary. I would still be there probably if not for the Florio tax increases."
Contillo lost his seat to Kosco in 1991, in large part due to voter anger over then-Governor James Florio's $2.8 billion tax hike.
With the state facing a massive budget deficit and Governor James E. McGreevey registering approval ratings reminiscent of Florio, Republicans are optimistic they can turn next year's legislative races into a repeat of 1991.
"The over-riding factor next year will be McGreevey if he has to raise taxes, which I think he will. The Democrats won't be able to defend that," said Ray Aspinwall, the executive director of the Bergen County Republican Organization.
"This could be Florio II," he added.
But Bill Maer, a Democratic consultant working with the Bergen County Democrats, said Democrats have delivered on other issues that matter to voters just as much as taxes.
"That's a district where Democratic issues play, and the Democratic Party has done a good job there of advocating for stabilizing property taxes, decreasing congestion, and increasing open space," he said.
Maer, who helped engineer his party's victory in the county executive race this year, cited that triumph as an example of the Democrats' increasing success at the local level.
"It's a fair district, and if you run a good campaign and you address issues of concern to voters, you will win," he said.
Contillo pointed out that beyond taxes, Democrats do seem to have an issues-advantage in the district. He said the 38th has a large population of teachers and education professionals, reliable Democratic voters. There's also a large population of low and middle-income tenants, also fertile ground for Democrats.
The former senator said Republicans might be walking into an ambush if they put up candidates who don't back gun control.
"There aren't that many people here who would support people running around with machine guns," he said.
But Salmore called the 38th a "weak Democratic" district, and said the right Republican can tap into conservative voter sentiment on a surprising number of issues.
"They would want to nominate a Republican whose roots are sort of in the ethnic population of the people who are in the district," he said. "They would want someone who is conservative on traditional family values, but who is credible on the tax issue."
Geography, too, is important in selecting the Republican candidates, Salmore said.
"It would help also to have a base in one of the towns," he observed. "The communication problems in that district are great. Neither the Bergen Record nor the Star-Ledger are going to cover it much. Television? It would have to be cable, and that costs money."
Both parties agreed that money will be a factor in next year's races, and that both sides are likely to make the district a priority.
"Really, it's going to depend on who raises the money, and we see the Democrats have been in a very good position on that," Contillo said. "We have a very strong chairman (Joseph Ferriero) in that area."
"I think it's going to be very hard for the Democrats to hold the district," predicted Salmore. "Though right now, I would have to say they are favored."
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