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In CA 50, on Election Eve, 2 Separate Dramas Unfold
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| Contributor | ArmyDem |
| Last Edited | ArmyDem Apr 10, 2006 10:01pm |
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| Category | Poll |
| News Date | Tuesday, April 11, 2006 04:00:00 AM UTC0:0 |
| Description | On the eve of the 4/11/06 Special Primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in California's 50th Congressional District, intense interest focuses on whether Democrat Francine Busby can possibly receive a majority of votes in an 18-candidate field, in which case the Democrats will succeed at "taking" a House seat away from the Republicans; and, if Busby fails to achieve a majority of the vote, then: which of several tightly bunched Republicans will face Busby in a Runoff Election on 6/6/06. Data gathered 4/7/06 to 4/9/06 by SurveyUSA, exclusively for KGTV-TV in San Diego, and released here shows Busby today at 47%, tantalizingly close to the 50% + 1 needed to avoid a runoff. Trailing Busby, far back, are Republican Eric Roach, at 14%, and Republican Brian Bilbray at 13%. These two are effectively tied. In 4th place is Republican Howard Kaloogian at 9%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 weeks ago, on 3/28/06, Busby is up 2 points, from 45% to 47%. Roach is unchanged at 14%. Bilbray has gained 3 points, from 10% to 13%, and Kaloogian has lost 3 points, from 12% to 9%. Busby is supported by 89% of Democrats, half of Independents, and 12% of Republicans. Click "T" to see SurveyUSA tracking graphs. The district is heavily Republican, and if Busby fails to top 50%, whichever Republican survives the Primary would be favored in a runoff. The 50th Congressional seat is vacant; Republican Randy "Duke" Cunningham resigned on 11/28/2005. Because the special election is seen by some as a referendum on corruption, the Congressional contest has been "nationalized," with money from many outside groups pouring into the district to attempt to mobilize and persuade voters. This could have unforeseen consequences in a low-turnout special election. |
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