https://twitter.com/JZTessler/status/1075582376313540614
If that map holds up then:
Rs lose seats in Alabama and West Virginia.
Rs probably lose a seat in California, Illinois, and New York.
The Michigan and Pennsylvania maps would likely hit an impass.
Dems lose a seat in Rhode Island. They'll probably lose a seat in Ohio.
Minnesota is sort of an odd one to draw since it'll depend on where the population growth is and isn't.
As for the gains:
I'd guess the 10th AZ seat is going to an R to make a 5-5 delegation.
I think another Colorado district probably involves another suburban Denver seat.
Florida is either 1 new D and 1 new R district, or Rs trying to draw 2 R districts before getting it struck down by a court in 2026.
Montana might draw a competitive Western Montana district if they make a map similar to the pre-1993 maps. But they could also draw a map to create two reasonably R districts if an R is elected Gov in 2020.
North Carolina's map will inspire a lawsuit if it involves an R Gov in 2021. Or a judge will draw it.
Oregon probably involves another district around the Portland suburbs.
Texas getting 3 districts means they'll create an Austin vote sink, and then try to create 2 new R districts.
If that map holds up then:
Rs lose seats in Alabama and West Virginia.
Rs probably lose a seat in California, Illinois, and New York.
The Michigan and Pennsylvania maps would likely hit an impass.
Dems lose a seat in Rhode Island. They'll probably lose a seat in Ohio.
Minnesota is sort of an odd one to draw since it'll depend on where the population growth is and isn't.
As for the gains:
I'd guess the 10th AZ seat is going to an R to make a 5-5 delegation.
I think another Colorado district probably involves another suburban Denver seat.
Florida is either 1 new D and 1 new R district, or Rs trying to draw 2 R districts before getting it struck down by a court in 2026.
Montana might draw a competitive Western Montana district if they make a map similar to the pre-1993 maps. But they could also draw a map to create two reasonably R districts if an R is elected Gov in 2020.
North Carolina's map will inspire a lawsuit if it involves an R Gov in 2021. Or a judge will draw it.
Oregon probably involves another district around the Portland suburbs.
Texas getting 3 districts means they'll create an Austin vote sink, and then try to create 2 new R districts.
Montana gaining is interesting.
I’d like to see an overlay off this map which involves which of these states of commissions drawing.
BTW - Colorado will have a commission drawing the 2020 districts given that the measure passed this last election.
Montana gaining is interesting.
I’d like to see an overlay off this map which involves which of these states of commissions drawing.
BTW - Colorado will have a commission drawing the 2020 districts given that the measure passed this last election.
I suspect a Colorado commission map wouldn't be quite as generous in how they draw CD6. Unless the new district is centered around Douglas County or something and CD6 moves north.
Or just put the Denver Airport in a different district than Denver so that CD6 isn't shaped so oddly.
I suspect a Colorado commission map wouldn't be quite as generous in how they draw CD6. Unless the new district is centered around Douglas County or something and CD6 moves north.
Or just put the Denver Airport in a different district than Denver so that CD6 isn't shaped so oddly.
And pretty much all of the growth in MN has been in the Twin Cities area, so they're going to lose a rural seat. Probably Peterson's though. He's probably going to retire then anyway and even if not he would lose the district eventually.
And pretty much all of the growth in MN has been in the Twin Cities area, so they're going to lose a rural seat. Probably Peterson's though. He's probably going to retire then anyway and even if not he would lose the district eventually.
geographically, I think that merging most of 7 and 8 would mean shedding some of the southern parts of 8 (Chisago/Isanti) into a Mpls/StP seat, and then having a district that goes from Duluth to Moorhead.
Might also mean that Emmer's district moves towards the South Dakota border to pickup parts of 7 (which is essentially the district Mark Kennedy won in 2000 https://www.ourcampaigns.com/RaceDetail.html?RaceID=516 ). And/or having parts of 1 go into 6, parts of 2 going to 1 (making 1 more of a SE Minnesota seat than a South Minnesota seat). And having 2 pick up some parts of other districts closer to Minneapolis/St. Paul.
Now if Peterson loses in 2020 instead of retiring before 2022, they could lose a seat purely from having two incumbents facing off in 2022.
geographically, I think that merging most of 7 and 8 would mean shedding some of the southern parts of 8 (Chisago/Isanti) into a Mpls/StP seat, and then having a district that goes from Duluth to Moorhead.
Might also mean that Emmer's district moves towards the South Dakota border to pickup parts of 7 (which is essentially the district Mark Kennedy won in 2000 [Link] ). And/or having parts of 1 go into 6, parts of 2 going to 1 (making 1 more of a SE Minnesota seat than a South Minnesota seat). And having 2 pick up some parts of other districts closer to Minneapolis/St. Paul.
Now if Peterson loses in 2020 instead of retiring before 2022, they could lose a seat purely from having two incumbents facing off in 2022.
Census redistricting state seat counts released by the end of next week. https://about.bgov.com/news/smaller-delegations-less-clout-states-brace-for-census-report/
Census redistricting state seat counts released by the end of next week. [Link]
D:1
