image://i.ibb.co/10N02rC/VAP.png Alot of talk about record turnout for this election. Last 8 elections. Turnout based on voting age population. Source: Wikipedia. 2020 Estimate Source: Election Project. Poll open to November 2 @ 12noon CST. Users can change vote up until then.

A Republican analyst is predicting turnout of 157 million. https://medium.com/echelon-indicators/america-is-headed-for-record-turnout-heres-what-that-looks-like-3432deb9fe05

Thats a great a link.

They are predicting particularly high turnout among non-college white voters - I would be interested in seeing something similar from a Democratic analyst.

The folks at 538 discussed turnout on their podcast today expecting it to hit 150M or slightly below. They discussed some modelers who have projected as high as 160M. I don't see any liberal groups modeling in the millions of voters, but more broadly about turnout tsunami or once in a century turnout. Alot pointing to the early voting, especially in Texas and Harris County. Most groups are talking around the 150M range. Michael McDonald who manages the US Election Project https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html which is tracking early vote numbers was quoted in 2019 as saying it could go as high as 67% turnout. He's pulled back on that more recently. But expects to hit close to or about 85M in early voting by election day. Sounds like we will be hearing more about turnout models in the final week of the campaign.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1319358871731830785

Already more early votes cast than in all of 2016. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-early-voting-idUSKBN2772WM?taid=5f91ee404f522800015fce00&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

We'll probably need to establish some ground rules when it comes to declaring someone the winner on Election Night Election night is such a firehose of results that it's sorta hard to declare too many winners. If it's similar to the primaries with a lot of mail-in votes, AP checkmarks might be the way to go, although it's possible that they're going to be way more cautious on 11/3 than they were in primaries.

I would be interested in seeing something similar from a Democratic analyst. This story has alot of data from Hawkfish, a Democratic firm. It's an interesting read. It has Democratic and Republican takes on what the data means, and for the most part it is what you expect: Democrats are dominating early voting but Republicans will show up in force on election day. Here are a couple interesting bits though: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363 Regarding Florida: Kevin Cate (D), CATECOMM: “The Republican spin on turnout and the enthusiasm gap sounds a lot like the Democratic spin in cycles where Democrats lost the top of the ticket. If you cut through it, Democratic turnout is unprecedentedly quick, large, and new — and so is No Party Affiliation turnout.” Regarding Michigan: John Sellek (R), Harbor Strategic in Michigan: “Polling here shows Biden leading amongst those who voted early so far, yet we are consistently seeing Republican voters expressing slightly higher excitement about voting than Democrats. We are also seeing Republicans conducting voter registration in blue-collar areas that's never been possible before. ... However, if turnout is over 5 million, which would break Michigan's 2008 record, it becomes very difficult to find enough Republicans to keep up at the statewide level.” Sachin Chheda (D), Nation Consulting in Wisconsin: “Nobody's talking about Kenosha. They're talking about Covid. They're talking about these coronavirus numbers. And if you are a Republican counting on an in-person vote on Nov. 3, with the coronavirus numbers spiking, the chances of people showing up to vote are lower, especially if your base is older or more likely to get sick. They have to make up a huge deficit on Election Day in the middle of the biggest pandemic the country has seen in 100 years.”

I don't know if I buy into the idea that Covid will discourage Republicans from voting in-person on election day. The issue of Covid has been so politicized that many don't care and go about their business maskless as is. If anything, the tendency for Democrats to vote early or by mail may embolden Republicans to vote on election day, since there will be fewer minorities waiting in line at the polls. It makes for a more welcoming environment if you're a Trump supporter who feels a certain way.

As of this morning. 51.2M Early Votes Cast, including 6.3M Texas 5.8M California 4.8M Florida 2.7M North Carolina 2.3M Georgia 1.9M Michigan 1.6M Ohio 1.4M Pennsylvania 1.2M Wisconsin 1.2M Arizona

I don't know if I buy into the idea that Covid will discourage Republicans from voting in-person on election day. I don't know that I buy it either, but since the number of new cases is at a record high and rapidly increasing, it will test the resolve of those who don't take COVID seriously. Some people were warning that Trump could declare a COVID emergency to try to disrupt voting, so at least we know that's not going to happen.

6.3M Texas For reference, Texas was #46 in turnout of eligible voters in 2016.

I was just thinking that given all the early voting, exit polling will be a challenge this year - but I guess the expert firms in this area probably have it figured out.

Texas has to have ranked pretty low for turnout of registered voters too. They had 59% turnout of registered voters in 2016 followed by 53% in 2018. If they top 60% turnout among registered voters, it'll be the first time that happened since 1992. https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/70-92.shtml

People talk about this being "the most important election in our lifetime". I think the most important election in my lifetime was the 2000 U.S. GE. The aftermath of the FL recount and the Help America Vote act was a revolutionary reform in how we run elections in the United States.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1321206699341074432

So what will be the headline Wednesday morning? I'm guessing "Biden Sweeps Sun Belt", as we anticlimactically wait for the upper Midwest to finish counting after the winner of the election is known. Thanks to RP for the fun site and to everyone here for the high quality political discussion over the campaign - everyone get a good night of sleep tonight.

Wall Street Journal Biden Leads Trump Carrying FL and NC while America Holds Off Declaring Victor as Count Continues in PA and MI New York Post America to Trump "You're Fired!" (<-You know that's gonna be a headline somewhere if Trump loses) Fox News Big Tech Blocks Trump Tweets, Biden Leads Count OAN New Revelations from Hunter Biden's Laptop as Democrats Steal Election Kazakhstan Today Local Girl Marries "America's Mayor" TMZ Kanye West institutionalized after election night outburst

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1323760159794016257?s=20

the general sense i'm getting from results I saw in MO is that only one state legislative district out of the 180 on the ballot is in line to flip. There's some strong "if you won in 2018, you won in 2020" energy for the results. Which of course means a bunch of pollsters are about to take a hit once everything is figured out.

The whole polling industry is in a mess. Things went about as expected in CO, including that our polling was relatively accurate for major races. Suburbs continued to trend blue, with one very tight DA race which could elect the first Dem as DA ever. Dems picked up a couple of seats in House and Senate. I'm looking forward to getting down to the county level outside of the Denver metro area. Looks like some very interesting trends developing. We live in a 50/50 country, we'll just need to get used to that and the passion that goes along with it on both sides.

Pyrrhic victory for Biden if Michigan and Wisconsin go as expected. Senate was a disaster. Without a majority, Biden will be unable to do anything. As a result, public dissatisfaction will grow and the GOP is on pace for another blowout victory in the 2022 midterms. It's the same thing over and over again.

Yeah, it looks like a surprisingly status quo election, which is weird for 202. Democrats/Biden are also going to be blamed for the horrible economy that's going to happen next year. And McConnell won't let any judicial seats be filled by Biden.

Trump has obviously found a way to mobilize a lot of otherwise lower turnout voters who love his horribleness. The GOP isn't going to give that up even if Trump himself goes away.