I asked this question a few months, but I don't quite remember the answer.
3 counties in New Jersey elect their Freeholders through districts. I am not familiar with the map making process here so I was wondering if someone would be able to help me with that.
Essex County Freeholder Districts -
https://ecfnj.com/breakdown-of-freeholders-districts/
Hudson County Freeholder Districts -
http://www.hudsoncountynj.org/message-from-the-chair/ (unfortunately I could only find a map on the respective Freeholder's bio)
Atlantic County Freeholder Districts -
https://www.atlantic-county.org/freeholders/distict-map.asp
I asked this question a few months, but I don't quite remember the answer.
3 counties in New Jersey elect their Freeholders through districts. I am not familiar with the map making process here so I was wondering if someone would be able to help me with that.
Didn't Norcross encourage Van Drew's party switch? If so, why would he hand pick a candidate to run against him? Has the Van Drew/Norcross relationship gone south?
Didn't Norcross encourage Van Drew's party switch? If so, why would he hand pick a candidate to run against him? Has the Van Drew/Norcross relationship gone south?
https://newjerseyglobe.com/redistricing/democrats-seek-to-postpone-legislative-redistricting-until-2023-election/
Some good news for NJ republicans. In the case that if the Democrats got their way there would be a GOP blood bath. But I wouldn’t be surprised if republicans pushed for a 2 year map using the 2010 numbers for the sake of picking up more seats in a potential December 2021 election.
Some good news for NJ republicans. In the case that if the Democrats got their way there would be a GOP blood bath. But I wouldn’t be surprised if republicans pushed for a 2 year map using the 2010 numbers for the sake of picking up more seats in a potential December 2021 election.
The original theory was that if there was a delay in census numbers legislative elections would be held in December. So this plan would negate the need for a December election since they would just keep the current districts.
The original theory was that if there was a delay in census numbers legislative elections would be held in December. So this plan would negate the need for a December election since they would just keep the current districts.
Post Primary election thoughts:
U.S. Senate :
Unfortunately this isn't a competitive race like Menendez VS Hugin. Rik Mehta is largely unkown and unliked by republicans, however that fact doesn't seem to be a factor in races down the ballot.
District 02:
Amy Kennedy is a horrible candidate for this working class Obama-Trump district. She comes off as out of touch. Van Drew is well known and well liked by republicans and democrats across the district and he came out of the primary completley unscaved. Although I doubt democrats could win this district this year, regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, they should have nominated Bob Andrzejczak as a sacrificial lamb.
District 03:
Andy Kim is becoming more and more popular among unions which is to his benefit in Burlington County. Richter's path to victory involves huge margins in Ocean County. This isn't out of reach with Trump on the ballot in Ocean and the fact he has proven himself popular among republicans and politicians in Ocean. This is probably one of the few "purple" districts in the country where being a Trumpist will help.
District 05:
Democrats should not take Frank Pallotta for granted he has a lot of support from republican Senators and Assemblypersons, the only exception being the lack of an endorsement from Assemblyman Parker Space who is easily the most popular republican in Sussex and Warren counties. Despite this Pallotta is at a huge deficit in fundraising, and he has to pick up over 46,000 votes to win. The path to victory involves huge margins in Sussex, Warren, and West Milford, however this may be in closer reach than some may say. However Bergen County is to huge of a factor. Pallotta has been sticking himself to Trump a little too much which may hurt him in the far east reaches of the district.
District 07:
Tom Kean is the only republican running in the state that I would say will probably win. Son of Tom Kean, Sr. and a State Senator since 2003 winning huge margins in a purple district that is largely in the 7th will greatly aid Kean. Kean is also, so far, the only republican that has been able to match their opponents fundraising.
District 11:
Mikie Sherrill who lives in Montclair (the outskirts of the district) faces a challenge from Rosemary Becchi (who also doesn't even live in the district). Becchi will likely do better than Jay Webber in 2018. But her path to victory is almost non-existent.
District 25 State Senate special:
Anthony Bucco will likely win. His opponent, Rupande Mehta has now lost two other elections in the 25th. It also remains unclear if republicans in the district even realize Anthony M. Bucco and Anthony R. Bucco are two different people. Democrats seem to rely on Mikie Sherrill's presence in the eastern reaches of the 25th, however it is Tom Kean's likely victory in the more conservative western reaches that will save Bucco.
District 25 Assembly special:
This will end up being much closer than the State Senate Special. Aura Dunn has lost two other elections before in Morris County, but they were only primaries. While Darcy Draeger came in last in the districts 2019 election. Dunn isn't has well seated with the community as Bucco, but the fact she was Rodney Frelinghuysen's district director might save her in this uber wealthy district.
Sussex Elections:
Freeholder- Safe Herb Yardley; Slockbower is an after thought for republicans
Andover Boro- Safe Gop
Andover Twp- Safe GOP
Branchville- Safe GOP/Safe DEM
Frankford- Safe GOP
Franklin- Safe GOP
Fredon- Safe GOP
Green- Safe GOP
Hamburg- Safe GOP
Hampton- Safe GOP
Hardyston- Likely GOP
Hopatcong- Safe GOP
Lafayette- Safe GOP
Montague- Safe GOP
Ogdensburg- Safe DEM/Safe IND
Sandyston- Safe GOP
Stanhope- Tossup/Safe GOP (special)
Stillwater- Safe GOP
Sussex- Safe GOP/Safe GOP (Special)
Walpack- Safe GOP (pop. 11)
Wantage- Safe GOP
Post Primary election thoughts:
U.S. Senate :
Unfortunately this isn't a competitive race like Menendez VS Hugin. Rik Mehta is largely unkown and unliked by republicans, however that fact doesn't seem to be a factor in races down the ballot.
District 02:
Amy Kennedy is a horrible candidate for this working class Obama-Trump district. She comes off as out of touch. Van Drew is well known and well liked by republicans and democrats across the district and he came out of the primary completley unscaved. Although I doubt democrats could win this district this year, regardless of the outcome of the Presidential election, they should have nominated Bob Andrzejczak as a sacrificial lamb.
District 03:
Andy Kim is becoming more and more popular among unions which is to his benefit in Burlington County. Richter's path to victory involves huge margins in Ocean County. This isn't out of reach with Trump on the ballot in Ocean and the fact he has proven himself popular among republicans and politicians in Ocean. This is probably one of the few "purple" districts in the country where being a Trumpist will help.
District 05:
Democrats should not take Frank Pallotta for granted he has a lot of support from republican Senators and Assemblypersons, the only exception being the lack of an endorsement from Assemblyman Parker Space who is easily the most popular republican in Sussex and Warren counties. Despite this Pallotta is at a huge deficit in fundraising, and he has to pick up over 46,000 votes to win. The path to victory involves huge margins in Sussex, Warren, and West Milford, however this may be in closer reach than some may say. However Bergen County is to huge of a factor. Pallotta has been sticking himself to Trump a little too much which may hurt him in the far east reaches of the district.
District 07:
Tom Kean is the only republican running in the state that I would say will probably win. Son of Tom Kean, Sr. and a State Senator since 2003 winning huge margins in a purple district that is largely in the 7th will greatly aid Kean. Kean is also, so far, the only republican that has been able to match their opponents fundraising.
District 11:
Mikie Sherrill who lives in Montclair (the outskirts of the district) faces a challenge from Rosemary Becchi (who also doesn't even live in the district). Becchi will likely do better than Jay Webber in 2018. But her path to victory is almost non-existent.
District 25 State Senate special:
Anthony Bucco will likely win. His opponent, Rupande Mehta has now lost two other elections in the 25th. It also remains unclear if republicans in the district even realize Anthony M. Bucco and Anthony R. Bucco are two different people. Democrats seem to rely on Mikie Sherrill's presence in the eastern reaches of the 25th, however it is Tom Kean's likely victory in the more conservative western reaches that will save Bucco.
District 25 Assembly special:
This will end up being much closer than the State Senate Special. Aura Dunn has lost two other elections before in Morris County, but they were only primaries. While Darcy Draeger came in last in the districts 2019 election. Dunn isn't has well seated with the community as Bucco, but the fact she was Rodney Frelinghuysen's district director might save her in this uber wealthy district.
Sussex Elections:
Freeholder- Safe Herb Yardley; Slockbower is an after thought for republicans
That could be the case... I have already seen so many republicans say they will never fill out their ballot, and that they will show up to their polling station (they will be shocked to learn they are closed). For example in Sussex turn out among republicans was low and turn out among democrats was high. Although the fact that the President is on the ballot may enthuse some republicans to cross their fingers and vote. On another note I think the opposition to vbm is incredibly stupid. I have seen so many republicans say b.s. about how it is rigged for democrats or how dead people will be voting. My primary "opposition" to vbm is that the POTENTIAL for fraud is there not that it is wide spread.
That could be the case... I have already seen so many republicans say they will never fill out their ballot, and that they will show up to their polling station (they will be shocked to learn they are closed). For example in Sussex turn out among republicans was low and turn out among democrats was high. Although the fact that the President is on the ballot may enthuse some republicans to cross their fingers and vote. On another note I think the opposition to vbm is incredibly stupid. I have seen so many republicans say b.s. about how it is rigged for democrats or how dead people will be voting. My primary "opposition" to vbm is that the POTENTIAL for fraud is there not that it is wide spread.
Since ballots go out in October here are some "1 month" pre election thoughts.
CD 2 - Amy Kennedy seems to be getting more media than Jeff Van Drew even after his RNC appearance. Still I this election is in Jeff Van Drew's favor. He has been campaigning in person (for better or for worse) while Amy Kennedy is stuck in awkward zoom meetings from her massive living room. This strategy may play better in a district like CD 7 or CD 11.
CD 3 - There has been little news out of CD 3 and little has been heard from David Richters camp. I originally thought republicans could pick up here, but after seeing Andy Kim's fundraising numbers and Richters apparent lack of trying this election will likely end up like CD 5 in '18.
CD 5 - I said this a few months ago, but many seem to be underestimating Frank Pallotta. I've seen this placed as safe dem on many predictions. While I believe that Josh Gottheimer is favored his popularity has seriously faltered. As a resident of the Sussex portion of the district people seem to be less warm to Josh Gottheimer. I have seen a serious lack of yard signs at peoples homes (trust me in 2018 people had them out by July) as well as a bunch of people who seem to roll their eyes at him when ever he is mentioned. Still, an anti-Gottheimer wave likely won't be enough to override Bergen's numbers. Frank Pallotta can win by driving out enough republicans and hoping enough democrats stay home. I know people who have volunteered for his camp by making phone calls and they have said many of the republicans who pick up already know who he is and intend to vote for him. That is a stark contrast to John McCann. I volunteered for his campaign in 2018 and I was making calls and knocking on doors (which I hated) a few days before election day and most republicans didn't even seem to know who John McCann was or were bitter because he beat Steve Lonegan. Still democrats outnumber republicans by 16K here so its still an uphill battle especially when no one is knocking on doors.
CD 7 - Tom Kean and Tom Malinowski have employed the campaign from my basement strategy, and its working. I still believe Tom Kean is the favorite. He is getting little attention from the state party so that could spell trouble as we inch closer to whatever election day is this year. Although I do find it obnoxious how both Kean and Malinowski are pretty much one upping each other on masks and bipartisanship and other blah blah blah
CD 11 - All I really have to say is Becchi is likely going to lose. And every time her camp puts something on Facebook a Mikie Sherrill supporter will comment something along the lines of "what about Trump?" which speaks to the fact no matter how much she criticizes Mikie Sherrill the hatred for Trump in this district looms large.
Since ballots go out in October here are some "1 month" pre election thoughts.
CD 2 - Amy Kennedy seems to be getting more media than Jeff Van Drew even after his RNC appearance. Still I this election is in Jeff Van Drew's favor. He has been campaigning in person (for better or for worse) while Amy Kennedy is stuck in awkward zoom meetings from her massive living room. This strategy may play better in a district like CD 7 or CD 11.
CD 3 - There has been little news out of CD 3 and little has been heard from David Richters camp. I originally thought republicans could pick up here, but after seeing Andy Kim's fundraising numbers and Richters apparent lack of trying this election will likely end up like CD 5 in '18.
CD 5 - I said this a few months ago, but many seem to be underestimating Frank Pallotta. I've seen this placed as safe dem on many predictions. While I believe that Josh Gottheimer is favored his popularity has seriously faltered. As a resident of the Sussex portion of the district people seem to be less warm to Josh Gottheimer. I have seen a serious lack of yard signs at peoples homes (trust me in 2018 people had them out by July) as well as a bunch of people who seem to roll their eyes at him when ever he is mentioned. Still, an anti-Gottheimer wave likely won't be enough to override Bergen's numbers. Frank Pallotta can win by driving out enough republicans and hoping enough democrats stay home. I know people who have volunteered for his camp by making phone calls and they have said many of the republicans who pick up already know who he is and intend to vote for him. That is a stark contrast to John McCann. I volunteered for his campaign in 2018 and I was making calls and knocking on doors (which I hated) a few days before election day and most republicans didn't even seem to know who John McCann was or were bitter because he beat Steve Lonegan. Still democrats outnumber republicans by 16K here so its still an uphill battle especially when no one is knocking on doors.
CD 7 - Tom Kean and Tom Malinowski have employed the campaign from my basement strategy, and its working. I still believe Tom Kean is the favorite. He is getting little attention from the state party so that could spell trouble as we inch closer to whatever election day is this year. Although I do find it obnoxious how both Kean and Malinowski are pretty much one upping each other on masks and bipartisanship and other blah blah blah
CD 11 - All I really have to say is Becchi is likely going to lose. And every time her camp puts something on Facebook a Mikie Sherrill supporter will comment something along the lines of "what about Trump?" which speaks to the fact no matter how much she criticizes Mikie Sherrill the hatred for Trump in this district looms large.
Kim's fundraising has been, well, nothing short of jawdropping.
I'm very curious to see if Kean is able to close the deal. He seems to have had some mixed results with NJ Voters.
Kim's fundraising has been, well, nothing short of jawdropping.
I'm very curious to see if Kean is able to close the deal. He seems to have had some mixed results with NJ Voters.
True that is Kean's biggest problem. His 2006 Senate loss is notable even though New Jersey is a blue state.
I never saw Andy Kim's fundraising coming he may even match up to Josh Gottheimer one day.
True that is Kean's biggest problem. His 2006 Senate loss is notable even though New Jersey is a blue state.
I never saw Andy Kim's fundraising coming he may even match up to Josh Gottheimer one day.
BEER:10271
