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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 29, 2024 10:06pm |
Juan Croniqueur: Are we sure that the "Courtney Love" here is actually this random Tacoma lady and not Kurt Cobain's ex?
Almost certain it's the latter.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 28, 2024 11:39am |
I have a feeling I'd rather be old and out of touch on this, ha.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 27, 2024 08:37pm |
hammer101peeps: I knew 2024 would be weird, but not "OurCampaigns has to make a candidate page for ChrisChan" level weird
Should I have known who that was at the time? I wrote it down in my notes but figured it was some random party member.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 26, 2024 05:55am |
Yeah, that sucked. Having Starchild mixing with the MAGA group was never going to end well. He's a headstrong guy and wouldn't take even the slightest amount of crap from them.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 26, 2024 05:48am |
This should be happening at start of business today and could have shifted considerably. A straw poll was held to decide three candidates to speak before and after the Trump event, with them being Oliver, Rectenwald, and ter Maat. Rectenwald's performance went over poorly due to low energy and moments he appeared to be off-kilter. Mises backers potentially leaving him today and that has to strengthen ter Maat's chances, who put in a strong performance in the debate yesterday morning as well. Lars not making the top 3 in the approval vote poll might suggest his support isn't broad enough. Chase has been typically strong and steady, so I'm now thinking this will come down to him and ter Maat at the end.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 25, 2024 05:02pm |
Bummer result. I think poor Rutherford just couldn't quite make up the excitement deficit in the end. Angela sounded like she was campaigning for president by talking issues while he spoke of practical management issues actually related to the position. Perhaps that swayed enough swing delegates to make the difference.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 25, 2024 07:07am |
Yeah, but it was the motion we needed. I was talking with the second guy ("that was going to be MY motion!") while waiting for the elevator to go back to business after lunch and he was already stewing about Trump. Haha.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 24, 2024 06:42pm |
Been impressed with the amount of visible support Lars has here and am thinking it will come down to him and Chase in the end. Rectenwald's problems reaching anybody but the most lockstep Mises loyalists would seemingly leave him no path to the nomination, and I'll be interested to see if there's a pragmatic move from him to ter Maat in hopes of cobbling a winning coalition. The issue all along for ter Maat has been not being enough folks' first choice and a lot of people's second, so if he can get past the first couple rounds would be a dangerous candidate to come from behind to win.
Still, I'd say best odds for finish order would be:
1. Oliver
2. Mapstead
3. Rectenwald
4. ter Maat
5. Hornberger
6. Smith
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 24, 2024 04:29pm |
Happy to have been wrong here.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 24, 2024 03:58pm |
Nominations came down a short while ago with elections to be held in the morning. That Ken Moellman accepted nomination was the big surprise, given he could have been chair when JBH resigned and expressly did not want it, though perhaps he's intending to use the nomination to advance a message rather than actually running. Besada also not a previous candidate, though unlikely to make a big splash due to being best known as one of the few Libertarians for Kennedy dudes.
First day was focused mainly on credentialing. Caryn Ann Harlos had been pressuring the credentials committee to interpret affiliate bylaws beforehand to restrict their ability to submit their own list, and yesterday the committee ruled that Michigan would have a partial list and that Oklahoma and Washington could not submit further delegates from out of state. The delegation body voted to seat all three in full.
The losing side tried to bring Oklahoma and Washington back up later but was dealt with. It's all probably a ruse to try and justify invalidating the results after they lose more. However, there would be at least as strong a case on the other side had Oklahoma and Washington been denied since their respective judicial committees already issued rulings interpreting their bylaws to allow out of state additions and national bylaws protect affiliates from being overruled by national. Michigan already had a judge rule that their list be submitted in full as well.
It'll probably get ugly after the convention but the most likely result the rest of the weekend is the good guys carry the full delegation votes and the Mises folks win most of the regional seats due to better regional organizing.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 14, 2024 12:17pm |
RBH: feels like having more Democrats (counting Malan here) than Republicans in this field is setting up for a Newhouse vs Smiley top 2
Three of whom filed on the last day.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 09, 2024 08:44pm |
So, apparently Italy released its public semifinal vote by accident and showed Israel getting like 40% of the vote and suddenly bookmakers are remembering that this is first past the post and the winner doesn't have to get anywhere near a majority if a significant minority is particularly supportive. I think way too many people were fooling themselves that they had no chance because of politics and got a reality check by the mistake.
Tbh I'd have rather that mistake not happened and then if Israel did win on Saturday I'd have looked like a mad genius for picking a 2-4% longshot. Oh well.
Pretty happy with the semifinals for the most part. Latvia and Slovenia beating the odds to qualify was particularly nice since they've both been firmly in my top 10. Norway absolutely destroyed in tonight's semi and I'm kinda surprised they didn't get a little bump. France's sneak peek performance was so strong that it's understandable that it's holding its position while others like Italy and Ukraine are starting to fall out of the picture.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 06, 2024 09:56pm |
Throwing a lifeline to Newhouse, in all likelihood.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 02, 2024 11:32am |
Her duets with Porter Wagoner where they effectively end up bickering like a married couple over music are definitely my favorite sub-category of her discography.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | May 01, 2024 12:45pm |
Poor Belgium just cratered with one bad performance going around making people think Mustii can't sing. Hoping he's able to prove folks wrong next week in the semifinal.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 25, 2024 10:37am |
They ran a strong second in a lot of the rural northern seats, though would have to convince those disillusioned with the SNP that they can dislodge them or that vote might go back into the Lib Dem fold like before the nats came to power.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 23, 2024 12:04pm |
Nekhaila announced yesterday. I imagine MC people will soon be a lot more frank and outspoken about the shortcomings of Angela's term than they have been previously.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 17, 2024 12:00pm |
Luzerne County Historian: I'll never forget when Heise tried to be buddy buddy with me and I kinda distanced myself from him and then later accused me of being a professional hater.
It takes only the slightest of pushback to get labeled a hater by those in the MC core. Since the Angela Papers leak it's been a running joke in LPWA how even Layla Bush was labeled "kind of a hater" by Angela in private conversation when she's so known for approaching things in good faith that it's nearly a stereotype. Even Caryn Ann loves Layla and her work ethic but she's still hater-adjacent for ever questioning dear leader and being in hater groups like the Classical Liberal Caucus. :P
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 16, 2024 10:55am |
BrentinCO: With Whitney Bilyeu being part of the Mises Caucus, the victory for Amelang and the loss for the Mises endorsed candidate is pretty big news, right?
Are libertarian folks tiring of the Mises caucus?
Whitney is hated by the Mises Caucus, both for having been running the top affiliate so successfully despite their attempts to take it over and when she became the interim LNC chair in the lead-up to Reno after Joe Bishop-Henchman stepped down (who they also hate) and Caryn Ann Harlos was removed as secretary. Mises has never gotten that close to holding power in Texas, though their strategy this time was a lot more laidback and conciliatory because their LNC takeover has come to be seen as such a failure. Another big loss there on its own isn't huge news though it was the biggest convention left before national and that's worth something for buzz.
Mises is like a gas giant planet. They have a small core of true believers that will always stay in line. Then there's a network they operate that can reach quite far and puff them up to look like a behemoth, but they all need cause to remain. Before, there was a common enemy in the LNC and the core leadership could put out a lot of hot air to motivate the rest to at least put in the minimum amount of effort to the cause. After winning control of the LNC, a good chunk of that support immediately vaporized because they were only in it to help in that moment, not to do actual work. As they've failed to deliver on promises, more of their members tuned out. Their hope was that Dave Smith would run for president and gas back up the tank but he didn't and that left them with a fair number of affiliates who have leadership that was part of their takeover effort but is somewhere on a scale of still being in it to recognizing it failed and acting independently. The MC core is starting to fall back to their old attack lies about everybody else as a last ditch effort but is unlikely to motivate anybody but themselves at this point.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 15, 2024 08:15pm |
Solid victory in the end for Amelang, though oddly for all three other constitutional positions the candidates on his slate and Polsky's slate lost. LP Texas showing a bit of independence, it seems.
Delegate selection sounds like it was hard fought with all their positions filled and lots of alternates. Some MC elected as delegates, including a couple bombthrowers like Scott Horton, though somewhat amusingly both Angela McArdle and her partner were only alternates and well down the list.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | April 04, 2024 12:57pm |
This is probably the last big thing ahead of the national convention. Texas has long been the (likely) most successful affiliate in the country and the Mises Caucus has wanted to gain control forever also in part because they loathe Whitney Bilyeu. Unfortunately for them, she decided not to run again and the wind has been entirely taken out of their sails in general so they're rather up against it once again in Texas.
Amelang is the continuity candidate. Very professional-oriented, reasonable type, and is the outgoing executive director of the affiliate. Polsky is a region rep and is Mises affiliated though from all I've heard is otherwise a decent enough bloke and is campaigning on unity rather than as their candidate.
I'd be shocked if it's anything but an easy Amelang victory though it's nice to see our top affiliate is no longer a divisive caucus sniping BS battleground.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | March 14, 2024 04:03pm |
Right on, glad I asked first.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | March 14, 2024 02:34pm |
Hey Randy, I was thinking about adding a container on here for the Eurovision song contest because it's an international competition that can certainly have political undertones about it (and that it's starting to take shape for 2024) much like the existing Olympics container. I figured I'd just add it to the country page as an organization but wasn't sure if that would automatically orient it into the Organizations/Other section and certainly didn't want to mess anything up.
Thoughts or concerns? I could mark things Silly if preferred.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | March 06, 2024 02:22pm |
Palmer certainly got there with considerably less spent for it.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points) | February 21, 2024 07:58pm |
Not an endorsement, though this peek at the initial lay of the land for the traditional base of the party has certainly chapped many an ass in the Rect and Smith camps.
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