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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| May 23, 2013 03:19pm |
Yet another special election the Democrats will find a way to lose.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| May 19, 2013 09:21pm |
Not electorally harmful.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| March 22, 2013 07:25pm |
Joe Arpaio is the only Republican I've voted for in a general election.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
 x3
| March 09, 2013 06:50pm |
McConnell wins by twenty.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| December 26, 2012 08:07pm |
He won't.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
 x2
x3
| December 19, 2012 10:12am |
People are delusional if they seriously believe Congress is going to pass new gun control legislation, fiscal cliff or otherwise.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| October 02, 2012 05:46pm |
I'm starting to think Indiana is going to be the only state that switches from 2008.
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Race
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
x2
| September 11, 2012 01:57pm |
Your candidate is going to lose. Live with it.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
| August 28, 2012 03:14pm |
Looks like I'll be around campaign HQ the rest of the day. Finalized personal predictions:
Sinema: 43%
Schapira: 41%
Cherny: 16%
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Race
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| August 23, 2012 03:25pm |
I predict if Warren loses here, then Brown will definitely win.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x7
| August 16, 2012 01:58pm |
RP: Hasn't Clinton said she won't run in 2016?
She has, but that means nothing.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
| August 12, 2012 03:50am |
Quite a beatdown for Case here. Only four more years until his next humiliating run for the Senate.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| August 03, 2012 03:31am |
AZ: R hold.
CA: D hold.
CT: D gain.
DE: D hold.
FL: R gain.
HI: D hold.
IN: R hold but with a plurality and the Libertarian winning near 5%.
ME: I gain.
MD: D hold.
MA: R hold.
MI: D hold.
MN: D hold.
MS: R hold.
MO: R gain.
MT: R gain.
NE: R gain.
NV: R hold.
NJ: D hold.
NM: D hold.
NY: D hold.
ND: R gain.
OH: D hold.
PA: D hold.
RI: D hold.
TN: R hold.
TX: R hold.
UT: R hold.
VT: I hold.
VA: D hold.
WA: D hold.
WV: D hold.
WI: R gain.
WY: R hold.
5-seat Republican gain.
52 Republicans
46 Democrats
2 Independents
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| July 31, 2012 09:17pm |
He also might not.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| July 29, 2012 02:15am |
The Holocaust never happened.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x3
x4
| July 26, 2012 11:54pm |
He and Walker will win decisively in 2014.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x3
| July 21, 2012 09:13pm |
Know what's really cool? Farts.
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ProgramLog
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| July 21, 2012 10:19am |
Bring back Troll.
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ProgramLog
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| July 20, 2012 04:01am |
This has Obama's fingerprints all over it.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
| May 31, 2012 05:16pm |
Slightly less.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
 x2
| May 10, 2012 04:37pm |
Long as it doesn't become an issue in which to primary opponents of gay marriage in swing or red districts (not that there were many Democrats remaining in those districts anyway), it's politically sound. Gay marriage is still unpopular throughout most of the country, and the party will have to tread carefully or risk being doomed to second-party status for the next 30 years.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
| May 10, 2012 03:42am |
Not often this happens, but I'm starting to think this will be competitive.
Coats won by an underwhelming margin in 2010, and Indiana's not solidly Republican as reputed (otherwise Obama could not have won here in 2008, perfect storm or otherwise).
Donnelly has the credibility to run as a feel-good moderate here, which will play well with bland centrist voters. Bland centrist voters also have to make up a sizable portion of the electorate here; after all, this is the state where Evan Bayh was popular forever. Lugar's complaints about the death of bipartisanship is Washington also don't help Mourdock.
If some of the close Senate races in 2010 indicated anything, it's that it's always possible to blow the best of circumstances with the worst of candidates. Michael Bennet was a patronage appointee. Everybody hated Harry Reid. Lisa Murkowski was a bloody write-in candidate. Didn't matter though, as Republican primary voters overplayed their hand in those states. Everything Mourdock has said and done in this campaign indicates he's another tea party type, and while that can win by a decisive margin in a state like Kentucky (which McCain won by 16), Indiana is not that kind of state. It's not a true swing state either, which makes comparisons with 2010 difficult. Still, on partisan tilt alone Indiana is somewhere to the left of Kentucky and to the right of Colorado, so even a close Mourdock victory would necessitate some level of competitiveness between now and November.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
| May 04, 2012 08:03pm |
The Virginia pattern is a correlation, but not causation.
The Republicans will hang on if Warner doesn't run. And obviously, Warner is the heavy favorite if he does run. The President's partisan affiliation will be a moot point, although Politico writers and other like-minded bottom feeders will insist otherwise.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x3
| May 04, 2012 04:29pm |
After the kind of money McAuliffe blew, he should know by now that his candidacy will be doomed to failure.
But since he did spend that kind of money in the first place, it implies he's egomaniacal and/or dumb enough to try again.
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| D:6086 | Jason ( 7718.44 points)
x2
| March 09, 2012 09:12pm |
This will help Arkansas Republicans win a majority.
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