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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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 to Ralphie
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | Ralphie |
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| Name | |
| Location | , WA, |
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| Birthday | August 03, 1982 |
| Affiliation | Libertarian |
| First Login | June 26, 2003 12:07pm |
| Last Login | April 18, 2024 03:59pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 13036.3018
Predictions: 8614/9818 (87.74%)
Points Per: 13036.3018/9818 (1.33)
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| Emote Messages |
630
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| DISCUSSION |
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| April 16, 2024 10:55am |
BrentinCO: With Whitney Bilyeu being part of the Mises Caucus, the victory for Amelang and the loss for the Mises endorsed candidate is pretty big news, right?
Are libertarian folks tiring of the Mises caucus?
Whitney is hated by the Mises Caucus, both for having been running the top affiliate so successfully despite their attempts to take it over and when she became the interim LNC chair in the lead-up to Reno after Joe Bishop-Henchman stepped down (who they also hate) and Caryn Ann Harlos was removed as secretary. Mises has never gotten that close to holding power in Texas, though their strategy this time was a lot more laidback and conciliatory because their LNC takeover has come to be seen as such a failure. Another big loss there on its own isn't huge news though it was the biggest convention left before national and that's worth something for buzz.
Mises is like a gas giant planet. They have a small core of true believers that will always stay in line. Then there's a network they operate that can reach quite far and puff them up to look like a behemoth, but they all need cause to remain. Before, there was a common enemy in the LNC and the core leadership could put out a lot of hot air to motivate the rest to at least put in the minimum amount of effort to the cause. After winning control of the LNC, a good chunk of that support immediately vaporized because they were only in it to help in that moment, not to do actual work. As they've failed to deliver on promises, more of their members tuned out. Their hope was that Dave Smith would run for president and gas back up the tank but he didn't and that left them with a fair number of affiliates who have leadership that was part of their takeover effort but is somewhere on a scale of still being in it to recognizing it failed and acting independently. The MC core is starting to fall back to their old attack lies about everybody else as a last ditch effort but is unlikely to motivate anybody but themselves at this point.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| February 21, 2024 01:51pm |
Happy birthday to a real good egg.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| February 13, 2024 02:44pm |
Indeed. Several of those state parties retained ballot access after disaffiliating from the LNC though they haven't tended to run many election campaigns since. Even the largest, Keystone in PA, didn't focus terribly much on them all while continuing to criticize LPPA for having much poorer electoral results since the Keystone folks had been running the show.
It's an unusual stance to be taking with their rightist nemeses on the ropes in the LP. Unless would-be allies still in the party move en masse to the Liberal Party USA after a loss in this year's convention, and even then there's already criticism of these folks for staying on the sidelines instead of helping to oust the paleocons. More likely, the LNC gets reined in and this project becomes somewhat redundant.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
x2
| January 15, 2024 11:37pm |
Zeus the Moose: The Mises Caucus itself is bleeding support?
Their numbers were already inflated in Reno with what is sometimes called the "delegate class," that is to say, people who normally are not involved heavily and were chosen as delegates over more qualified people. Those folks did their thing and peaced out. Then there are MC believers who are upset with how the people they put into leadership have performed and either left or are figuring out what to do now. They still control some affiliates and could stack those delegations but it's unlikely they will be able to do that as broadly this time with less money and less optimism over what could be done with control of leadership.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| January 15, 2024 03:41pm |
He's wealthy from his tech career and has been spending a lot on visibility metrics like social media advertising and polling that includes him as the LP candidate. Other than that, his strategy has been pinpointed on certain states like those with per-district EV because his big thing is earning an electoral vote. Thus, his support is really solid in a few places like Maine but in those inactive states is fairly sparse. I'd originally predicted him for this primary race because he's from California and I figured he'd probably win that primary with a little spending on flyers.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
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| January 13, 2024 10:12pm |
And here I was hoping the Natural Law Party was making another go of it. Hmph.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
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| December 26, 2023 04:02pm |
Write-in: Eric Adams.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| December 08, 2023 10:48am |
Zeus the Moose: Do the Misesites have a specific Trump stalking horse, or is that still an open field right now?
Rectenwald. When Dave Smith got around to announcing (what almost everybody paying attention already knew) that he isn't running, the Mises Caucus chair had to scramble for a replacement option, not only for them to have an officially supported candidate but also so he could step down as caucus chair and have a paid campaign manager position. It's going over poorly, though. Finding somebody out there touting Rectenwald is rare outside of those who are directly involved.
As it stands, those who are or were supporters of the takeover are split. The most die-hard followers will stay in line for Rectenwald. The saucier ones who think the caucus sold out and/or failed are the natural Joshua Smith base. The ones who were actually there all along to support Austrian economics instead of culture war BS will mostly go for ter Maat. He tried to frame his campaign as growing from the Mises Caucus movement initially in hopes of being a consensus choice but it didn't really work because he's a decent person with a professional campaign and the edgelord crowd have no time for either of those things. Mapstead has gotten support from some of the lapsed Mises crowd as well, those who are more just over it and want to move on. Hornberger seems to have little Mises support anymore but is doing well with old radical types, and to his credit is running close second to Oliver in grassroots member donations.
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| November 14, 2023 03:48pm |
AI noticed the similarities of hairstyle and eyewear, at least!
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| LBT:352 | Ralphie ( 13036.30 points)
| October 27, 2023 10:25pm |
Nah, just went through a phase where I got into their politics during those few years where Koizumi had the old guard on the ropes. When Your Party fizzled and there was no longer momentum to liberalize the bureaucratic state I mostly lost interest.
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