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"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource."
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CincinnatiReds1990
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USER DETAILS |
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| Screen Name | CincinnatiReds1990 |
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| Name | Eric |
| Location | Batavia, , |
| Email | |
| Birthday | July 29, 1994 |
| Affiliation | Republican |
| First Login | December 03, 2007 02:01pm |
| Last Login | April 23, 2024 10:59pm |
| Predictions |
Points: 187.4290
Predictions: 412/511 (80.63%)
Points Per: 187.4290/511 (0.37)
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| Messages Posted |
23
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| DISCUSSION |
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BrentinCO: An Indy Presidential Run by RFK Jr. will?
Help Biden more. Most Biden supporters are not leaving Biden and risking it on a 3rd party candidate, especially if the nominee is Trump. Besides, the vaccine position of RFK Jr. is enough to give most of them the shivers.
By contrast, there is a lot of Trump supporters who do like RFK Jr. because of the vaccine stuff.
That could make it a bit easy for Biden in swing states, and I could even see Ohio becoming more reachable for the Democrats again if RFK Jr. gains steam.
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Candidate
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Vivek would get some praise from the Libertarian Party for his positions on foreign policy, Federal Reserve, and cancel culture. But I can't see him having appeal to them on some other issues. A big obstacle I could see is when he voted No on Legalizing Marijuana in Ohio. He also seems to be a bit of a hardliner on immigration and some social issues.
The Mises Caucus might be willing to look the other way, but there is some more orthodox Libertarians who won't be so forgiving.
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Race
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Undecided voter. (I plan on voting in the Republican primary here in Ohio) For now I picked Christie for this poll, but I am also considering Haley and Hutchinson.
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Race
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I was initially an undecided voter on this. (Typical Ohio Voter, lol) Even leaning Yes at one point as I do think on principle 50%+1 does seem a bit too easy to amend the constitution.
But, there seems like there is a lot of politicizing of the issues like abortion tied into this and the new signature requirements seem a bit too much.
I'm voting No.
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Race
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I do think if Baker wanted it, he probably could take down Warren. Other than some Far Left voters, (who are pretty hard for any Republican to please) he didn't do much to offend most Massachusetts voters. There was some heat from the populist Right toward to end of his tenure, but I think that has mostly dwindled down. They've lost credibility with Diehl's 2 losses and with Jim Lyons not being party chairman any longer. I do think he would have survived the primary had he ran for a 3rd term in much the way Mike DeWine survived in Ohio. Far Right populists were loud and annoyed about COVID policy and some other issues, but at the end of the day, they'd still rather win and keep the seat out of Democratic hands.
Warren's issues are still a bit fresh in people's minds. Her vanity run for President got her 3rd place even in Massachusetts, and sometimes being in the national spotlight isn't always a good thing.
She could still win against Baker. Weld was popular in '96 and still lost to Kerry, but Baker is probably the best chance for Republicans to unseat Warren. There isn't many other options I think they would have who'd compare in Name ID, approval rating, or cash to do it.
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News
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The decision to move to New Hampshire for the Browns has not paid off well. Scott Brown had as hard of a time running against Shaheen in '14 as he did against Warren in '12 in Massachusetts. Now Gail placed 3rd in this House Primary.
Might have been better off staying in Massachusetts. He could have become Governor down the road, and she could have gotten her foot in the door as a State Rep or State Senator in Wrentham.
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Race
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Kyle: The MA and MD GOP watched as Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan were two of the most popular governors in the country & Donald Trump lost their states by over 30 points twice & said “let’s follow that Trump path.”
They just can't get out of their own way sometimes. I'm less familiar with Maryland's situation. But in Massachusetts, it's the cancer that is Jim Lyons party leadership. The sooner he's gone, the better it'll be for the MA GOP. However, they basically waved the white flag of surrender to Healey with the primary going to Diehl.
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Race
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DylanSH99: Happy Birthday to a fellow Reds fan!
Oh, no way! I didn't realize you were a Reds fan too! Yeah, been a fan since Ken Griffey Jr. was playing over here. Still watching the games this year. Though I think it's unlikely we'll get more than 3rd in the Central this year, I am optimistic next year.
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User
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Thanks everyone!
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User
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My prediction for this race is a bit of a tossup. Right now, I think Vance has a slight advantage just because it's a midterm year in a Biden Presidency. But I don't think Vance is safe like what some "geniuses" on Twitter like to think.
Vance has run kind of a quiet campaign (maybe to avoid saying anything too stupid) and he's not exactly a uniting nominee. He was definitely the furthest primary candidate from where the party has traditionally been on stuff like foriegn policy, free markets, and free trade.
It's too bad Ryan is also against free trade because he would have something that distinguishes him better from Vance.
But, I think Ryan is one of the safer Democrats who could be the nominee.
It's not crazy to think Tim Ryan wins it, but I just wouldn't put money on it yet.
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Race
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I actually went to High School with Andrew. We were even in AP History together.
I don't think I've ever met Lynne, but Andrew and I went to school with one of her daughters. I wasn't as close to her though.
I'm in Ohio now, but I have been watching this race. Andrew definitely seems closer to a Harrington/Baker moderate who is open to compromise on Beacon Hill when appropriate. Lynne seems to be more of a populist who is not going to work with people she disagrees with as easily.
I would think given how close Harrington's race was last time would be a wake up call that local Republicans should be careful about nominating someone too ideological, as this district may be a little more Purple rather than Red like it was years ago, but, Archambault might just have enough campaign starstruck to blind the voters. Shepherd seems more electable in November though, and I think he could win the primary.
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Race
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BrentinCO: Joe Biden, "This fall, Roe is on the ballot."
What will the political impact of the Dobbs decision by the US Supreme Court be on the mid-term election results?
Will probably still be a Republican year as the first midterm in a new Presidency usually benefits the main opposing party, but I think the Roe/Dobbs stuff will probably energize the very Pro-Choice Democrats a little more than usual to vote. Democrats might get a small bump from it, but it won't be enough. Inflation is still going to be a headache for Democrats to deal with before midterms.
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Race
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BrentinCO: I felt like this was Mandel's race to lose one he got in. That's why I chose him. But valid points about Gibbons having the lead and losing it.
It seems like it all started to unravel for both Mandel and Gibbons when they got into that debate fight. And Vance with Trump's endorsement started to pick up Mandel and Gibbons voters who were less tied to their candidate.
And from the looks of it, a larger share of Gibbons left their candidate for Vance.
As far as Timken goes - I always felt here numbers were inflated, partially because she had a lot of scammy internal polls she was releasing.
Timken never even really held a real job anyway. She was just Trump's pick in the Trump vs. Kasich civil war for Ohio Republican Party chairperson. I've been hearing Portman probably wouldn't have even endorsed her so soon had Mrs. Portman not already been campaigning for Timken.
As far as Mandel goes. Yes, he was probably the favorite at one point, as he had the highest ranking Ohio job of the field. But he really picked a corner to stay in trying to be a Ted Cruz Republican. While a lot of voters like that, he really missed out on a lot of the more moderate votes that ended up going to Dolan in the end. (And he used to appeal to some of those moderate voters in his previous races)
If he wasn't looking for moderates, he needed the Trump endorsement, which he failed to get.
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Race
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Luzerne County Historian: From the results so far, it seems like the urban/suburban Republicans went more for Dolan. Vance is in the lead at the moment but alot of the suburban/urban votes still didn't come in yet whereas the rural ones are mostly done. Dolan could still pull ahead, depending who the remaining voters cast their ballots for.
I was indeed one of those suburban Dolan votes. He came in 3rd in Clermont County.
However, I was pleasantly surprised DeWine carried Clermont. (Just east of Cincinnati) It is normally a very populist county and the local GOP endorsed Renacci.
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Race
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Visigoethe: Huge shift with both Baker and Polito both announcing they're not running for re-election. Unless Republicans can recruit someone substantial like Patrick M. O'Connor or Bruce Tarr this is now Diehl's race to lose. Likely D flip imo.
Oh, this race is WIDE open now. Yes, the Democrats' chances definitely go up with Baker and Polito not running, but Diehl is no certainty if a moderate Republican jumps in. It could be O'Connor or Tarr. Could even be Beth Lindstrom, John Kingston, Kevin O'Connor, or Richard Tisei. There's a few popular state reps like Sheila Harrington, Kim Ferguson, or Hannah Kane who might be possibilities too.
It could be someone completely out of nowhere too. But I would question where the funding would come from.
If nothing happens, Diehl wins the primary and gets crushed by a Democrat next November. But I don't think Republicans would want to wager with that. In 2018, the senate race was going to be an uphill battle to unseat Warren, but this Governor's race is now OPEN. Wasting time on Diehl in a state where Trump always had a 29% approval rating would seem like a wasted opportunity.
But, with Jim Lyons as chair, I'm sure the GOP will find a way to mess it up.
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Race
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Southern_Moderate2: This kid reached out to Michael Dukakis about a run
That's hilarious!
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Race
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And of course Winston County, that one historically anti-confederate holdout in north Alabama.
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Race
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Looks like you don't have the access yet Oz. But it's okay. Participate a little more in discussion and you'll probably get a bump. I think you only need 6.
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Race
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You should try a hypothetical Truman Alabama-1948 race too.
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Race
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Ooo. This is a fun one.
I've often pondered how this race would have played out had Johnson been on the AL ballot.
I still think Goldwater carries Alabama. Though it's far closer between LBJ and Goldwater than Goldwater and "Unpledged Delegates."
Maybe 53-47. The Johnsons may have had family ties to AL, but the Deep South was protesting the Civil Rights Act pretty hard. There wasn't much sympathy vote. I could see Alabama and Mississippi voting differently back then, but I don't Johnson getting Alabama and Goldwater getting Georgia at the same time.
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Race
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George Pataki has endorsed Kasich.
[Link]
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Race
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Rick Santorum has the remarkable record of going from #1 in Iowa to 2nd to last all in four short years!
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Race
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Maybe not a Republican, but I do think JFK would frequently buck the Democrats as he did in the 50's.
I think he'd be somewhere between a Stephen Lynch and Jim Webb... a moderate Democrat who wouldn't tow the party line all the time.
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News
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