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  AZ US Senate - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Arizona > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
HonorificSenator - Abbr: Sen.
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 01, 2018 - 06:00pm Central
Polls Open August 28, 2018 - 07:00am Central
Polls Close August 28, 2018 - 08:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2025 - 12:00pm
ContributorRP
Last ModifiedCharlotte Rose April 30, 2019 05:15pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameJeff Flake Votes1,104,457 (49.23%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin67,915 (+3.03%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2018
NameKyrsten Sinema Votes1,191,100 (49.96%)
Term01/03/2019 - 12/09/2022 Margin55,900 (+2.34%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceAZ US Senate 11/06/2018
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
05/12/2017 08/28/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Martha McSally 4 8 --1
Joseph M. "Joe" Arpaio 1 ------
Leaning Call: Martha McSally (96.00%)
Weighted Call: Martha McSally (100.00%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

10/26/2017 08/22/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Martha McSally St. Sen. Kelli Ward County Sheriff Joseph M. "Joe" Arpaio (W) Nicholas Glenn (W) William Gonzales  
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican  
Campaign Logo  
Certified Votes 357,626 (54.58%) 180,926 (27.61%) 116,555 (17.79%) 121 (0.02%) 70 (0.01%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -176,700 (-26.96%) -241,071 (-36.79%) -357,505 (-54.56%) -357,556 (-54.56%)  
Predict Avg.48.00% 28.25% 21.25% 0.00% 0.00%  
DylanSH9955.00% (+4.81 pts) 25.00% (+1.33 pts) 20.00% (+0.86 pts) -- --
Kyle45.00% (-1.29 pts) 30.00% (+1.48 pts) 25.00% (-2.47 pts) -- --
Luzerne County Historian45.00% (-1.29 pts) 30.00% (+1.48 pts) 15.00% (+0.48 pts) -- --
CincinnatiReds199047.00% (+0.04 pts) 28.00% (+2.81 pts) 25.00% (-2.47 pts) -- --
Cash On Hand $-- 8/8 $256,784.64 $-- $-- $--  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Entry Date 01/12/2018 10/27/2016 01/09/2018 06/01/2018 06/01/2018  
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (16 from 9 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg46.63%-- 24.43%-- 15.82%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Data Orbital 
08/21/18-08/22/18		 48.10% 17.1 22.10% 3.1 17.60% 4.4 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
08/14/18-08/15/18		 47.00% 12.0 27.00% -- 13.00% 2.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
OH Predictive Insights 
07/23/18-07/25/18		 35.00% 4.0 27.00% 2.5 15.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
06/27/18-07/02/18		 34.60% -- 24.80% -- 20.60% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Emerson College 
06/21/18-06/22/18		 32.30% -- 19.40% -- 18.20% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
06/17/18-06/21/18		 30.00% -- 28.00% -- 21.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
BEER WSNJ
R CincinnatiReds1990
LBT Luzerne County Historian
R Kyle
R Jan Brewer 🔗
R Southern Moderate
R Jay Heiler 🔗
R Scott³
AnFed Patient Grasshopper
R Paul Gosar 🔗
R Rand Paul 🔗
R Steve King 🔗
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
D Jason
 

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Jay Heiler (R)
Jan 12, 2018 		Craig Brittain (R)
 00, 2018 		Christian Diegel (R)
 00, 2018 		Michelle Griffin (R)
 00, 2018 		Matthew J. "Matt" Salmon (R)
 00, 2018 		Nicholas Tutora (R)
 00, 2018 		Jeff DeWit (R)
Nov 30, 2017 		John Shadegg (R)
Nov 07, 2017
Trent Franks (R)
Oct 26, 2017 		Paul Gosar (R)
Oct 25, 2017 		David Schweikert (R)
Oct 25, 2017 		Jeff Flake (R)
Jan 01, 2017 - Oct 24, 2017

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
08/22/2017 vs Kelli Ward TVAd Attack eng ChemtrailKelli  00:01:17 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Oct 24, 2017 03:15pm Speculative Joe Arpaio still considering Arizona Senate run, says he met Steve Bannon twice  Article RP 

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