Home About Chat Users Issues Party Candidates Polling Firms Media News Polls Calendar Key Races United States President Senate House Governors International

New User Account
"A comprehensive, collaborative elections resource." 
Email: Password:

  FL Governor - D Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Florida > Governor
OfficeGovernor
HonorificGovernor - Abbr: Gov.
TypeDemocratic Primary Election
Filing Deadline June 22, 2018 - 12:00am Central
Polls Open August 28, 2018 - 06:00am Central
Polls Close August 28, 2018 - 06:00pm Central
Term Start January 03, 2019 - 12:00pm
Term End January 03, 2023 - 12:00pm
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedQbanito July 12, 2020 09:27am
Data Sources[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2014
NameRick Scott Votes2,865,343 (48.14%)
Term01/06/2015 - 01/08/2019 Margin64,145 (+1.08%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2018
NameRon DeSantis Votes4,076,186 (49.59%)
Term01/08/2019 - 01/03/2023 Margin32,463 (+0.39%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceFL Governor 11/06/2018
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
11/21/2015 08/28/2018
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Gwen Graham 7 3 4 --
Philip Levine 1 ------
Leaning Call: Gwen Graham (96.15%)
Weighted Call: Gwen Graham (100.41%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph

08/02/2016 08/26/2018

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Mayor Andrew T. Gillum Rep. Gwen Graham Mayor Philip Levine Jeff Greene Christopher King John Wetherbee Alex "Lundy" Lundmark
PartyDemocratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic Democratic
Campaign Logo
Certified Votes 522,164 (34.36%) 474,875 (31.25%) 308,801 (20.32%) 152,955 (10.07%) 37,616 (2.48%) 14,426 (0.95%) 8,655 (0.57%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -47,289 (-3.11%) -213,363 (-14.04%) -369,209 (-24.30%) -484,548 (-31.89%) -507,738 (-33.41%) -513,509 (-33.79%)
Predict Avg.23.50% 34.50% 23.00% 13.50% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand 8/3 $1,401,952.25 8/3 $2,919,631.55 8/3 $3,082,824.36 8/3 $272,206.18 8/3 $1,527,975.87 $-- $--
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Entry Date 03/01/2017 05/02/2017 11/01/2017 06/01/2018 03/02/2017 06/13/2018 06/07/2018
Bar
MATCHUP POLLS (34 from 14 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg16.47%-- 27.42%-- 20.91%-- 13.96%-- 4.57%-- 1.00%-- 1.00%--
St. Pete Polls 
08/25/18-08/26/18
25.00% 3.6 32.00% 5.0 22.00% 3.2 11.00% 3.5 2.00% 0.7 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Gravis Marketing 
08/21/18-08/22/18
15.00% 5.0 26.00% 1.0 18.00% 1.0 19.00% 1.0 5.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
SEA Polling & Strategic Design (D) 
08/19/18-08/21/18
18.00% 3.0 25.00% 1.0 26.00% 1.0 13.00% -- 2.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Florida Atlantic University 
08/16/18-08/20/18
11.40% 4.4 28.90% 8.9 17.20% 1.2 10.90% 3.1 10.30% 1.3 0.00% -- 0.00% --
St. Pete Polls 
08/18/18-08/19/18
21.40% 9.5 27.00% 1.9 25.20% 5.9 14.50% 8.3 2.70% 0.7 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Change Research 
08/18/18-08/19/18
33.00% -- 22.00% -- 22.00% -- 10.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements

DROPPED OUT - NO VOTES
Patrick Murphy (D)
Jun 07, 2018
Kathy Castor (D)
Jan 11, 2018
Katherine Fernandez Rundle (D)
 00, 2018
Grant Hill (D)
 00, 2018
John Morgan (D)
Jan 06, 2017 - Nov 24, 2017
Jeremy Ring (D)
May 31, 2017
Bob Buckhorn (D)
Mar 09, 2017
John P. "Jack" Seiler (D)
Mar 05, 2017
Charlie Crist (D)
Jan 04, 2017
Buddy Dyer (D)
Sep 30, 2015

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
08/22/2018 Philip Levine TVAd Feel Good eng Florida's Moment  00:00:30 RP 
08/17/2018 Gwen Graham TVAd Biography eng Fresh  00:00:30 RP 
07/25/2018 Andrew T. Gillum TVAd Biography eng What's Impossible?  00:00:32 RP 
07/24/2018 Philip Levine TVAd Mixed eng A Leader  00:00:31 RP 
06/24/2018 Philip Levine TVAd Issue eng Remedy  00:00:30 RP 
06/20/2018 Gwen Graham TVAd Issue eng Absolute  00:00:31 RP 
06/14/2018 Jeff Greene TVAd Biography eng His Dad  00:01:00 RP 
06/14/2018 Jeff Greene TVAd Biography eng Jeff Greene Stands Up To Trump  00:00:30 RP 
06/06/2018 Gwen Graham TVAd Biography eng Service  00:00:30 RP 
05/11/2017 Gwen Graham Candidacy Announcement Issue eng Making a Difference  00:02:46 RP 

BOOKS
Title Purchase Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor

DISCUSSION
[View All
24
Previous Messages]
 
I:0john ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, December 28, 2016 05:59:44 AM UTC0:00
Ring is most likely running for CFO, Jack Seiler Attorney General.

Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum and Attorney John Morgan might run.

 
D:8509DylanSH99 ( 1716.1335 points)
Mon, August 21, 2017 10:41:45 PM UTC0:00
Businessman Chris King is running. Would add him, but couldn't find his candidate page, might not have one. [Link]

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, January 4, 2018 08:15:29 PM UTC0:00
Gwen Graham endorsement from David Jolly (R)? -

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
Thu, January 4, 2018 10:05:29 PM UTC0:00
Would have to think so. She's not a sitting office-holder that he's giving a pep talk to.

 
R:194Scott³ ( 8755.2266 points)
Sat, January 6, 2018 04:08:43 AM UTC0:00
I thought Jolly had switched parties.

 
R:9804Southern Moderate ( 0.0000 points)
Tue, January 23, 2018 07:16:38 PM UTC0:00
Jolly is still a Republican, albeit a very moderate, anti-Trump one.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Tue, February 6, 2018 04:02:19 PM UTC0:00
When do candidates choose their LG running mates? Graham and Gillum teaming up would be a strong movement, I think.

 
I:9626Bojicat ( 786.8221 points)
Tue, February 6, 2018 05:41:02 PM UTC0:00
PA INDY, I think the LG will be selected almost immediately post primary, and Graham, a name good as gold in Florida, should take it. Graham-Gillum has a ring to it.

 
I:9767BusyBusbee ( 308.6044 points)
Wed, February 7, 2018 11:44:15 PM UTC0:00
I would support that ticket Graham/Gillum 2018! You are right Bojicat it does has a ring to it.

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Tue, June 19, 2018 09:49:02 PM UTC0:00
That’s quite a jump for Gillum. Any insights?

I’m having real trouble making sense of Florida polls this cycle. Lots of volatility. Must mean pollsters are not aligned on their models.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Tue, June 19, 2018 10:14:44 PM UTC0:00
I'd say that Gravis polls can be weird.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Tue, June 19, 2018 11:29:04 PM UTC0:00
The polls look like they've been all over the place lately. This seems to be the first one to show Gillum with a lead, and the last few polls seem to indicate that he's rising. I haven't read too much about this race, but I'm predicting Graham will win by a small percentage over Gillum with Levine underperforming his poll numbers.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, June 20, 2018 12:02:29 AM UTC0:00
Greene's entry and mega-spending are likely going to scramble the race as well.

 
D:9642EastTexasDem ( 1194.2172 points)
Mon, July 16, 2018 08:39:15 PM UTC0:00
These Florida poll numbers are wild to me. Funny enough, I've been seeing Levine ads on Facebook all the way here in Texas.

 
I:1038WA Indy ( 1790.9733 points)
Sat, August 11, 2018 07:30:21 PM UTC0:00
Levine's got a helluva burn rate

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Thu, August 23, 2018 10:39:18 PM UTC0:00

 
Un:9757BrentinCO ( 6338.6216 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 01:48:47 AM UTC0:00
A victory here by the very liberal Gillum gives Republicans a shot at holding this office. Graham would have undoubtedly been the stronger GE candidate.

This is very good news for Republicans. It’s now very conceivable we could see headlines after GE election night reading the picking up the Senate seat and holding the Governors office. This would defuse what could be a bad night in other places

 
I:6738IndyGeorgia ( 3906.0425 points)
x3
Wed, August 29, 2018 01:57:57 AM UTC0:00
If Graham had won, Democratic commentators would have had a field day writing articles about how Graham and Nelson are "failing to motivate the Democratic base".

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 03:17:49 AM UTC0:00
One could hope that the minorities, liberal and youth would turn out to vote for Gillum and Nelson, and the Seniors and moderates who remember Nelson's service and centrism turn out to vote for him and Gillum, but I'm not sure voters work that way...

 
D:1989RBH ( 5212.2285 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 05:00:42 AM UTC0:00
the Florida Democratic party isn't gonna get the benefit of the doubt for state candidates as long as they keep losing state elections.. that goes either way

also, it seems like quite a few campaigns don't really do media buys in Miami, and it's not all because of language, is it? Graham's results in Broward/Miami-Dade would make one wonder how many times she visited the area.

 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 02:55:59 PM UTC0:00
Interesting observation:


 
D:1RP ( 5506.7227 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 03:04:55 PM UTC0:00
RBH: Graham's results in Broward/Miami-Dade would make one wonder how many times she visited the area.

Well, she spent election day morning serving coffee at the famous Cuban Versailles Restaurant in Miami.

 
I:10010Poll Vaulter ( 324.2112 points)
Wed, August 29, 2018 03:44:39 PM UTC0:00
Bad night for ST Pete Polls.. missed pretty badly here.. and also missed on FL15 with Combee and Spano.

 
D:6086Jason (11889.0225 points)
Thu, August 30, 2018 12:10:10 AM UTC0:00
Mealy-mouthed centrist Democrats have blown so many contested elections in Florida that it's not like they have much authority on what it takes to win.

It's possible Gillum loses anyway, and the Florida Democratic Party's weaknesses are just institutional in nature. If that's the case, the party's issues with electability don't seem to stem from ideology but from other reasons.