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  UK Parliament - Bradford West - By-Election
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United Kingdom > England > Yorkshire & The Humber > Yorkshire & the Humber > Bradford West
OfficeParliament
Type General Election
Filing Deadline March 14, 2012 - 06:00pm
Polls Open March 29, 2012 - 01:00am
Polls Close March 29, 2012 - 04:00pm
Term Start March 30, 2012 - 12:00pm
Term End May 07, 2015 - 12:00pm
ContributorPicimpalious
Last ModifiedRBH March 29, 2012 09:07pm
Data Sources[Link]
Description Hope will use the ballot paper description "Monster Raving Loony William Hill Party" as part of a sponsorship deal.
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyLabour Won05/06/2010
NameMarsha Singh Votes18,401 (45.35%)
Term05/17/2010 - 03/02/2012 Margin5,763 (+14.20%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
MAP
KEY RACE? 10.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/08/2012 03/29/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Imran Hussain 1 3 1 4
Leaning Call: Imran Hussain (100.00%)
Weighted Call: Imran Hussain (100.00%)

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name MP George Galloway City Councilor Imran Hussain Jackie Whiteley Jeanette Sunderland Sonja McNally Dawud Islam Neil Craig
PartyRespect Labour Conservative Liberal Democrat UK Independence Green Democratic Nationalist
Website
Uncertified Votes18,341 (55.89%) 8,201 (24.99%) 2,746 (8.37%) 1,505 (4.59%) 1,085 (3.31%) 481 (1.47%) 344 (1.05%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -10,140 (-30.90%) -15,595 (-47.53%) -16,836 (-51.31%) -17,256 (-52.59%) -17,860 (-54.43%) -17,997 (-54.85%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
I TX_Socialist
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
Laf-W Craverguy
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Party Leader Alan "Howling Laud" Hope  
PartyOfficial Monster Raving Loony  
Website  
Uncertified Votes111 (0.34%)  
Margin-18,230 (-55.56%)  
Predict Avg.0.00%  
Cash On Hand $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (0 from 0 pollsters)
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
J Dr. Cynic
D Andy
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Mar 29, 2012 09:30pm News 'We have won the most sensational victory': George Galloway secures shock victory in Bradford West by-election  Article Craverguy 
Mar 06, 2012 05:00pm News Former MP George Galloway to stand in Bradford West  Article Picimpalious 

DISCUSSION
[View All
43
Previous Messages]
 
J:1802Dr. Cynic ( 378.3219 points)
Fri, March 9, 2012 05:23:16 AM UTC0:00
My guess would be that Labour should still pick Ralph Berry. He's got a lot of experience and he seems very involved locally with the constituency. Even if the demographics point to choosing Imran Hussain, who would be a good candidate as well.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Fri, March 9, 2012 05:24:33 AM UTC0:00
and Galloway's base is the Kashmiris, right?

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 9, 2012 05:28:17 AM UTC0:00
He doesn't have a base in the constituency and will almost certainly lose his deposit.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 01:02:21 AM UTC0:00
In shocking news to all concerned, Labour have selected Imran Hussain, the Deputy Leader of the Council and Councillor for Toller ward who was endorsed by all the other Labour councillors in Bradford West.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 06:36:34 AM UTC0:00
He doesn't have a base in the constituency and will almost certainly lose his deposit.

What percentage of the vote does one need to obtain in order to avoid losing one's deposit?

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 06:41:06 AM UTC0:00
5%.

I imagined New Jerusalem was being optimistic when he said Galloway wouldn't cross that hurdle. Why even bother to run? If it was just for headlines, Gerry Adams seat would have been a better option. Anyway, I still think he probably keeps his deposit. His chances would have been better with a White Labour candidate though.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 03:43:02 PM UTC0:00
Mostly optimism, but it isn't as though Respect has ever done well in Bradford.

Presumably he's running because he thinks he's got a shot of polling ahead of the LibDems. Who certainly face at least a possibility of losing their £500. LibDem percentages in the 2011 city council elections for Bradford West wards:

City - 3.3%
Clayton & Fairweather Green - 6.3%
Heaton - 3.9%
Manningham - 19.6%
Thornton & Allerton - 3.2%
Toller - 2.3%

Note that in Manningham they were defending a seat and lost it by 54pts.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 04:23:03 PM UTC0:00
He came ahead of a Liberal Democrat candidate when they were riding high during the 2010 general election. Beating them now would hardly be impressive.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 09:33:20 PM UTC0:00
Yes, but that was in Tower Hamlets where had a (rather shopworn) local profile and a (rather depleted) political base. In Bradford he's just the man that dressed up as a cat on the telly the one time.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Mon, March 12, 2012 11:43:56 PM UTC0:00

 
Laf-W:2005Craverguy ( 773.7696 points)
Thu, March 15, 2012 05:14:57 AM UTC0:00
They're really holding this election less than a month after the seat was vacated?

Doesn't give people much time to campaign, does it?

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Thu, March 15, 2012 05:36:40 AM UTC0:00
Craverguy: Doesn't give people much time to campaign, does it?

The nature of UK Parliamentary elections in general.

 
D:215User 215 ( 720.3858 points)
Thu, March 15, 2012 03:49:23 PM UTC0:00
Campaigns? I think it is more about giving the people of the seat an actual representative.

 
J:1802Dr. Cynic ( 378.3219 points)
Thu, March 15, 2012 08:19:57 PM UTC0:00
After just watching that cat video I truly cannot believe THAT is the same man who knocked both Roy Jenkins and Oona King out of the House of Commons for good.

 
D:215User 215 ( 720.3858 points)
Sat, March 17, 2012 10:14:43 AM UTC0:00
I dunno, Rula Lenska tends to creep me out more then George Galloway

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Thu, March 29, 2012 02:37:10 PM UTC0:00
And here we are. There's been a bit of media buzz over Galloway, but it's hard to tell whether it's based on something genuine (i.e. meaningful 'institutional' support for his candidacy for whatever reason) or if it's just bored hacks being bored. If it's the former he could actually do quite well, if it's the latter...

Anyways, further background: as a result of what has become known as 'Pastygate' (and perhaps one or two other more serious issues relating to the Budget and the latest party funding/lobbying scandal) several polls have been published this week giving Labour a 10pt lead nationally. Which hasn't happened for ages.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 12:30:18 AM UTC0:00
Polls closed about half an hour ago. Might be quite a while until we find out quite what has been going on though.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 12:40:09 AM UTC0:00
A Sky journo at the count is saying Hussain will win but that Whiteley will finish below Galloway. The current fuel fiasco is cited as the reason. Polls haven't been shut long, so that probably comes from talking to activists, rather than from snooping around counting tables.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 01:06:19 AM UTC0:00
Turnout reported to be very low by one BBC journalist. But not long before that another one apparently said otherwise.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 01:34:39 AM UTC0:00
Twitter is full of rumours that Galloway may have won. Some of them seem less than entirely plausible for one reason or another, but who knows. Apparently counting only started half an hour ago.

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 02:40:42 AM UTC0:00
And it does look as though he's actually managed to win (at least from a quick trawl of the internets). Bizarre. Well, I'm never predicting elections in Mirpuri Pakistani areas again.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 03:05:41 AM UTC0:00
Ugh.

 
SAP:262Gaear Grimsrud ( 6920.2134 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 03:17:44 AM UTC0:00
L'illusionniste: And it does look as though he's actually managed to win (at least from a quick trawl of the internets). Bizarre. Well, I'm never predicting elections in Mirpuri Pakistani areas again.

Didn't one of the Bradford seats actually swing against Labour in 1997 due to biraderi-type issues?

 
LAB:1731L'illusionniste ( 561.8354 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 03:28:33 AM UTC0:00
This very seat actually: [Link]

My suspicion is that this is mostly Afghanistan related, fwiw.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Fri, March 30, 2012 03:42:33 AM UTC0:00
Ugh. This is a nasty bit of business.