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  SC US President - R Primary
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > South Carolina > President
Parent RaceUS President - R Primary
OfficePresident
Type Primary Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2012 - 12:00pm
Polls Open January 21, 2012 - 06:00am
Polls Close January 21, 2012 - 06:00pm
Term Start January 20, 2013 - 12:00am
Term End January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 15.05% Total Population
ContributorIndyGeorgia
Last ModifiedCrimson March 07, 2012 04:54pm
Data SourcesSouth Carolina Secretary of State
[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/04/2008
NameJohn McCain Votes1,034,896 (53.87%)
Term01/20/2009 - 01/20/2013 Margin172,447 (+8.98%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyRepublican Won11/06/2012
NameMitt Romney Votes1,071,645 (54.56%)
Term01/20/2013 - 01/20/2017 Margin205,704 (+10.47%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceSC US President 11/06/2012
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.3332996368 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
12/17/2010 01/21/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Newt Gingrich 25 5 ----
Rick Perry ----1 --
Mitt Romney 3 5 --1
Rick Santorum 1 ------
Leaning Call: Newt Gingrich (62.50%)
Weighted Call: Newt Gingrich (78.42%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
05/22/2010 01/20/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Newt Gingrich Gov. Mitt Romney Sen. Rick Santorum Rep. Ron Paul Herman Cain Gov. Rick Perry Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr.
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Certified Votes244,065 (40.42%) 168,123 (27.85%) 102,475 (16.97%) 78,360 (12.98%) 6,338 (1.05%) 2,534 (0.42%) 1,173 (0.19%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -75,942 (-12.58%) -141,590 (-23.45%) -165,705 (-27.45%) -237,727 (-39.37%) -241,531 (-40.00%) -242,892 (-40.23%)
Predict Avg.30.20% 29.38% 16.64% 13.47% 0.08% 3.26% 0.57%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (38 from 10 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg28.48%-- 28.89%-- 10.93%-- 13.02%-- 2.14%-- 3.53%-- 2.16%--
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/20/12
37.00% 2.0 28.00% 1.0 16.00% 1.0 14.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/19/12
35.00% 1.0 29.00% 1.0 15.00% 1.0 15.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% 5.0 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/18/12
34.00% 10.0 28.00% 1.0 14.00% -- 15.00% -- 0.00% -- 5.00% 1.0 0.00% 5.0
Insider Advantage 
01/18/12-01/18/12
31.60% 10.6 28.80% 5.8 10.90% 3.1 15.20% 2.2 0.00% -- 2.90% 2.1 0.00% 7.0
Tarrance Group (R) 
01/17/12-01/18/12
29.00% -- 31.00% -- 8.00% -- 9.00% -- 0.00% -- 3.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
01/17/12-01/18/12
33.00% 8.0 32.00% 3.0 9.00% 2.0 19.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 4.00% 5.0 0.00% 1.0
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Robert "Bob" Royall [L]
R John L. Napier [L]
R Kenneth A. "Kenny" Bingham [L]
R Joshua Putnam [L]
R David H. Wilkins [L]
R G. Murrell Smith, Jr. [L]
R Charlie Condon [L]
R Ralph W. Norman [L]
R Deborah Long [L]
R Steve Moss [L]
R F. Gregory "Greg" Delleney, Jr. [L]
R Stephen H. Brown [L]
R Gary Bunker [L]
R Lee Bright [L]
R Kevin Bryant [L]
R Danny Verdin [L]
D Stephen Colbert [L]
R Robert W. "Bobby" Harrell, Jr. [L]
R Hugh Weathers [L]
R Mark Willis [L]
R Bill Taylor [L]
  The State
R John Courson [L]
R Alan Wilson [L]
R Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell, III [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Rep. Michele Bachmann Gov. Gary Johnson  
PartyRepublican Republican  
Website [Website] [Website]  
Certified Votes491 (0.08%) 211 (0.04%)  
Margin-243,574 (-40.34%) -243,854 (-40.39%)  
Predict Avg.0.84% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (38 from 10 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg4.19%-- -4.46%--  
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/20/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/19/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/18/12-01/18/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Insider Advantage 
01/18/12-01/18/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
Tarrance Group (R) 
01/17/12-01/18/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
01/17/12-01/18/12
0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/19/2012 Herman Cain TVAd Attack eng Modern Stage Combat   00:01:01 Homegrown Democrat 
01/18/2012 Newt Gingrich TVAd Attack eng Desperate   00:00:46 Homegrown Democrat 
01/18/2012 TVAd Issue eng Double Negative   00:01:01 Homegrown Democrat 
01/17/2012 Herman Cain TVAd Mixed eng Not Abel  00:01:00 Homegrown Democrat 
01/16/2012 Rick Santorum TVAd Attack eng Easy Answer   00:00:31 RP 
01/15/2012 TVAd Attack eng Attack In B Minor For Strings  00:01:01 Homegrown Democrat 
01/12/2012 Newt Gingrich Web Only Ad Attack eng The French Connection   00:00:00 RP 
01/11/2012 Newt Gingrich Web Only Ad Attack eng For The Dogs   00:01:55 RP 
01/08/2012 Newt Gingrich TVAd Attack eng King of Bain "When Mitt Romney Came To Town"  00:02:55 RP 
01/06/2012 Ron Paul TVAd Attack eng Betrayal  00:01:05 Homegrown Democrat 
01/06/2012 TVAd Attack eng We Can Do Better Than Ron Paul   00:01:01 Homegrown Democrat 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jan 21, 2012 11:00pm Press Release NOM Congratulates Newt Gingrich on South Carolina Win  Article -- 
Jan 21, 2012 12:35pm Blog Entry Early Exit Poll Has Ron Paul In Second With 26%  Article Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! 
Jan 20, 2012 05:50pm Statement Herman Cain defends Newt Gingrich from CNN ‘crap’  Article RP 
Jan 20, 2012 10:00am Scandal Fake CNN email used as dirty trick in South Carolina  Article RP 
Jan 20, 2012 09:00am Commentary Why Newt Gingrich is surging in South Carolina  Article Brandon 
Jan 19, 2012 11:45am Advertisement Anonymous South Carolina Flier Attacks Rick Santorum's Wife  Article Homegrown Democrat 

DISCUSSION
[View All
98
Previous Messages]
 
D:263mtrz ( -39.8779 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 01:05:26 AM UTC0:00
I don't expect Santorum to go easily now that he's tasted the spotlight.

 
D:7CA Pol Junkie ( 2702.2412 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 01:11:49 AM UTC0:00
mtrz: I don't expect Santorum to go easily now that he's tasted the spotlight.

I don't think he will have a choice. Next up is Florida, and that takes a ton of money which Santorum won't have.

 
D:263mtrz ( -39.8779 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 01:37:29 AM UTC0:00
It takes a lot of money to win Florida. It doesn't take a lot of money to go there and make himself feel important. In a Romney/Gingrich/Paul/Santorum field, Santorum's small core of true blue social conservatives will keep him funded enough to carry on at least a bare-bones campaign.

Delusions got him in the race. He was largely ignored. Delusions kept him in until Iowa. Then results forced people to start paying attention to him. As long as he stays in he gets to keep his name in the news, and moreso than it ever was in the early days of the more crowded primary.

He isn't an I-could-take-it-or-leave-it politician like Perry or a this-might-get-me-a-Fox-News-gig politician like Cain. He doesn't have a house seat to go back to like Bachmann and he isn't running for 2016 like Huntsman. Unless another candidate it willing to make a big deal of him in return for his endorsement (unlike Romney's downplaying of Huntsman's), Santorum gets a lot more by staying in than by dropping out.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 05:27:15 AM UTC0:00
Gingrich's lead has actually increased in the wake of his ex-wife's controversial interview
with ABC. Although one night poll results should always be interpreted with caution, he
led the final night of the field period by a 40-26 margin. One thing that continues to work
to his advantage are the debates. 60% of primary voters report having watched the one
last night, and Gingrich has a 46-23 lead with those folks.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 11:37:31 AM UTC0:00
I said for a million and a half days prior to this primary that South Carolina Republicans would never accept Mitt Romney's religion. After Mitt Romney's expected big win in New Hampshire, I freaked out and suddenly went back on this line of thinking.

I really need to stop doing that to myself when it comes to predicting elections. Slight Gingrich.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
x3
Sat, January 21, 2012 04:43:33 PM UTC0:00
His religion doesn't help, but that doesn't explain his precipitous collapse here in the last few days. If someone opposed Mitt for his Mormonism, they wouldn't just now be shifting away from him. It's all about Bain and his refusal to be transparent by releasing his tax returns, or, more particularly, his bumbling, inept responses every time he's asked about them. It makes him seem like a guy with something to hide, which is all the more damaging since he's already got a big problem with authenticity. He just comes across as insincere, uncomfortable in his own skin, and horribly out of touch with middle class voters. In a state that likes populist conservatives, Mitt Romney just doesn't sell well.

 
D:479Brandon ( 1558.3782 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 05:56:46 PM UTC0:00
I almost wish I'd have changed my prediction to strong Gingrich.

 
P:130karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 06:01:28 PM UTC0:00
He just comes across as insincere, uncomfortable in his own skin, and horribly out of touch with middle class voters. In a state that likes populist conservatives, Mitt Romney just doesn't sell well.

Which is why after 5 years of campaigning for President, Romney hasn't been able to seal the deal. Even with the cast of losers he's running against.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 07:19:44 PM UTC0:00
Wow, I haven't been paying attention to this at all. Romney has totally died in this state.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 08:13:55 PM UTC0:00
In a state that likes populist conservatives, Mitt Romney just doesn't sell well.

South Carolina's reputation is "the state that always votes for the front-runner," not one that goes for underdog populist challengers. The South Carolina GOP primary is basically a microcosm of the national GOP primary...as demonstrated by the fact its picked the winner in every race since it was first held in 1980. If South Carolina goes for Gingrich today (as it probably will), that will be an example of South Carolina going against the grain of its typical pattern, not a confirmation of it.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 08:16:03 PM UTC0:00
I almost wish I'd have changed my prediction to strong Gingrich.

I'm just glad I barely snuck under the wire in the early hours of the morning, in order to adjust my point-by-point predictions. I had this race predicted as "Slight Gingrich," but with Gingrich only getting 18.5 percent of the vote.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 08:42:05 PM UTC0:00
I don't think you're actually given points for those percentage predictions.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 10:22:16 PM UTC0:00
I don't think you're actually given points for those percentage predictions

Well, it says you do, so I'm guessing you do. They're still fun, regardless.

 
D:2109Andy ( 4160.6357 points)
Sat, January 21, 2012 10:26:06 PM UTC0:00
I would've gotten like eleven points for predicting Obama's 365-173 electoral college win in 2008 that I don't remember getting, so I don't think they're awarded, even if they say they are.

They are indeed still fun, however.

 
LBT:7092derstad980 ( -208.5854 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 01:39:47 AM UTC0:00
The Polls close at 4:00 pm Pacific Time right?

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 01:43:02 AM UTC0:00
7pm Eastern so yes.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 01:47:00 AM UTC0:00
I start work half an hour after the polls close. How annoying.

 
LBT:7092derstad980 ( -208.5854 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 01:49:24 AM UTC0:00
Even if Gingrich wins this, Romney still will win the nomination I think. This will just be a bump in the road for Romney.

 
R:7206Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! ( 290.2565 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 01:54:57 AM UTC0:00
Romney will remain the frontrunner, it seems, but it becomes difficult to just assume he will take it.

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:00:33 AM UTC0:00
Huh? Fox already projected Gingrich to win...

 
LBT:7092derstad980 ( -208.5854 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:00:56 AM UTC0:00
If he wins Florida (which is likely) he has a couple of Caucuses coming up that he should do well in (Nevada, Maine, Minnesota). Plus two primaries which he should win (Arizona, and Michigan). Super Tuesday will be Newt's only chance.

 
D:15COSDem ( 3540.3062 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:01:16 AM UTC0:00
MSNBC calls it for Newt.

 
P:130karin1492 ( 609.4522 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:01:36 AM UTC0:00
Wow! Horrible news for Romney. Gingrich already called winner of primary.

 
LBT:7092derstad980 ( -208.5854 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:02:04 AM UTC0:00
ABC News also calls it for Newt

 
LBT:7092derstad980 ( -208.5854 points)
Sun, January 22, 2012 02:05:01 AM UTC0:00
Who do you guys think finishes 3rd? Santorum of Paul? And does it matter?