Been a while since the last one of these:

R to D: Massachusetts D to R: Montana Nebraska North Dakota Wisconsin R to I: Maine

Oh, and Missouri.

I think Wisconsin is the biggest question mark as far as Senate races in the nation go-Obama is winning by a large enough margin in Virginia that he will likely carry Kaine across at this point, and despite close polls, I don't see ND or MT going to the Democrats at this point. Wisconsin will likely depend on if the GOP shoots itself in the foot by abandoning Thompson in favor of Neumann-if they do, I think Baldwin squeaks through this, if they don't, then Thompson takes it.

My updated seniority prediction: 85) Kelly Ayotte (R) - current senator 86) Dean Heller (R) - current senator 87) Tammy Baldwin (D) - House since '99 88) Jeff Flake (R) - House since '01 - Arizona bigger than Missouri 89) Todd Akin (R) - House since '01 - Missouri bigger than Montana 90) Denny Rehberg (R) - House since '01 - Montana 91) Chris Murphy (D) - House since '07 - Connecticut bigger than Hawaii 92) Mazie Hirono (D) - House since' 07 - Hawaii 93) Martin Heinrich (D) - House since '09 94) Rick Berg (R) - House since '11 95) Angus King (I) - Former governor (8 years) 96) Tim Kaine (D) - Former governor (4 years) 97) David Dewhurst (R) - Texas bigger than Massachusetts 98) Elizabeth Warren (D) - Massachusetts bigger than Indiana 99) Richard Mourdock (R) - Indiana bigger than Nebraska 100) Jon Bruning (R) - Nebraska

You think Baldwin beats Thompson?

Obviously.

He's the eternal pessimist, remember?!?

With which predictions do you disagree? I think my predictions are quite fair. Democrats get Massachusetts, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Republicans get Missouri, Montana, and Nevada. I think pretty much every Senate contest will go down which presidential candidate also wins the state. The only exception for me is Nevada (and, of course, Maine.)

I agree with JR although I think MT is a toss up and MO is as well but it ever so slightly leans R.

A half dozen of them are toss-ups. Virginia has been tied for months.

I think pretty much every Senate contest will go down which presidential candidate also wins the state. The only exception for me is Nevada (and, of course, Maine.) Don't forget WV. Lol.

Nate Silver has updated his Senate predictions. Changes from last time: *Good for Dems* California and Pennsylvania were moved from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic Michigan was moved from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic Indiana, Nebraska, and North Dakota were moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican *Good for GOP* Texas was moved from Likely Republican to Safe Republican New Jersey was moved from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic *Good for Angus King* Maine was moved from Likely Republican to Likely Independent http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/16/democrats-odds-of-retaining-senate-improve/

Nate Silver is slow to react.

Yeah-at what point was Texas anything other than Safe Republican-there is no Democrat in that state who could possibly win a Senate seat without a Mark Foley-size scandal to push things along?

FWIW, OC weighted projections are predicting 51R-47D-2I.

Should Indiana be light red or whats the ruling on that?

AZ: R hold. CA: D hold. CT: D gain from sorta D. DE: D hold. FL: D hold thanks to Republican incompetence. HI: D hold regardless of who wins the primary. Although there's more of a chance of an upset with Case. Luckily I don't think he wins. IN: R hold but with a plurality and the Libertarian winning near 5%. ME: I (sorta D) gain. (D+1) MD: D hold. MA: R hold. MI: D hold. MN: D hold. MS: R hold. MO: R gain regardless of candidate although the candidate will be Brunner. (R+1) MT: R gain. (R+1) NE: R gain. (R+1) NV: R hold. NJ: D hold. NM: D hold. NY: D hold. ND: D hold (this is my only risky pick). OH: D hold. PA: D hold. RI: D hold. TN: R hold. TX: R hold. UT: R hold. VT: I hold. VA: D hold. WA: D hold. WV: D hold although Manchin will become even more of a pain for Democrats during his first full term. WI: D hold. I venture to say regardless of the Republican nominee although I'm pretty sure it will be Hovde. WY: R hold. Al Hamburg as Democratic candidate. Overall, 2 seat net gain for Republicans. 49 Republicans 49 Democrats (one of whom is Joe Manchin) 1 Bernie Sanders 1 Angus King I guess technically that means I'm predicting Democratic control but I wouldn't really call that "control."

AZ: R hold. CA: D hold. CT: D gain. DE: D hold. FL: R gain. HI: D hold. IN: R hold but with a plurality and the Libertarian winning near 5%. ME: I gain. MD: D hold. MA: R hold. MI: D hold. MN: D hold. MS: R hold. MO: R gain. MT: R gain. NE: R gain. NV: R hold. NJ: D hold. NM: D hold. NY: D hold. ND: R gain. OH: D hold. PA: D hold. RI: D hold. TN: R hold. TX: R hold. UT: R hold. VT: I hold. VA: D hold. WA: D hold. WV: D hold. WI: R gain. WY: R hold. 5-seat Republican gain. 52 Republicans 46 Democrats 2 Independents

Talk about a nightmare for Senate control if it ends up 50 R's, 48 D's & 2 D-leaning I's with Obama reelected. Good god, talk about threatening bloviation from all sorts of in the middle Senators!

Yes, nightmare for all of us and dream come true for Angus King.

I think with Thompsons' win last night we might just see that nightmare scenario. Though I'm still up-in-the-air about MA, MT, and WI, my guesses are we lose five (MO, MT, ND, NE, and WI), gain one (MA), and it all comes down to Angus King.

Nate Silver has updated his Senate predictions. Changes from last time: *Good for Dems* Washington and West Virginia were moved from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Connecticut and Hawaii remain Likely Democratic, and move up percentage-wise. Ohio and New Mexico remain Lean Democratic, and move up percentage-wise. North Dakota remains Lean Republican, and moves up percentage-wise. *Good for GOP* Nebraska was moved from Lean Republican to Likely Republican. Nevada was moved from Toss-Up to Lean Republican. Florida was moved from Lean Democratic to Toss-Up. *Good for Angus King* Maine was moved from Likely Independent to Safe Independent. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/in-senate-races-politics-are-local-again/

Nate Silver is overrated.

86) Dean Heller (R) - current senator 87) Jeff Flake (R) - House since '01 - Arizona bigger than Missouri 88) Todd Akin (R) - House since '01 - Missouri bigger than Montana 89) Denny Rehberg (R) - House since '01 - Montana 90) Chris Murphy (D) - House since '07 - Connecticut bigger than Hawaii 91) Mazie Hirono (D) - House since' 07 - Hawaii 92) Martin Heinrich (D) - House since '09 93) Rick Berg (R) - House since '11 94) Tommy Thompson (R) Former governor (14 years) 95) Angus King (I) - Former governor (8 years) 96) Tim Kaine (D) - Former governor (4 years) 97) Ted Cruz (R) - Texas bigger than Massachusetts 98) Elizabeth Warren (D) - Massachusetts bigger than Indiana 99) Richard Mourdock (R) - Indiana bigger than Nebraska 100) Debra Fischer (R) - Nebraska Although Berkley, McCaskill, Tester, Heitkamp, Baldwin, Allen, Scott, and Mack could obviously win, and at least one of them will almost certainly win.