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  IA US President - R Caucus
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Iowa > President
Parent RaceUS President - R Primary
OfficePresident
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2011 - 12:00pm
Polls Open January 03, 2012 - 07:00pm
Polls Close January 03, 2012 - 07:15pm
Term Start January 20, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 21.02% Registered 3.99% Total Population
ContributorJason
Last ModifiedMiro January 19, 2012 08:17am
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
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[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/04/2008
NameBarack Obama Votes828,940 (53.93%)
Term01/20/2009 - 01/20/2013 Margin146,561 (+9.53%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameBarack Obama Votes822,544 (51.99%)
Term01/20/2013 - 01/20/2017 Margin91,927 (+5.81%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceIA US President 11/06/2012
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.5000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/31/2010 01/03/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mitt Romney 30 ------
Newt Gingrich 1 ------
Ron Paul 9 1 2 --
Rick Santorum 10 1 ----
Leaning Call: Mitt Romney (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Mitt Romney (71.48%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
03/02/2010 01/01/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sen. Rick Santorum Gov. Mitt Romney Rep. Ron Paul Rep. Newt Gingrich Gov. Rick Perry Rep. Michele Bachmann Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr.
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes29,839 (24.57%) 29,805 (24.54%) 26,036 (21.44%) 16,163 (13.31%) 12,557 (10.34%) 6,046 (4.98%) 739 (0.61%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -34 (-0.03%) -3,803 (-3.13%) -13,676 (-11.26%) -17,282 (-14.23%) -23,793 (-19.59%) -29,100 (-23.96%)
Predict Avg.14.07% 21.72% 22.14% 13.19% 9.47% 8.86% 1.93%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg12.93%-- 20.96%-- 19.19%-- 16.94%-- 10.11%-- 7.09%-- 1.58%--
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12
18.00% 4.6 22.70% 5.5 22.40% 5.1 16.10% 0.6 9.60% 0.9 5.80% 6.0 1.80% 1.0
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12
16.00% 5.0 22.00% -- 17.00% 1.0 15.00% 2.0 9.00% -- 8.00% -- 4.00% 2.0
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12
18.00% 8.0 19.00% 1.0 20.00% 4.0 14.00% 1.0 10.00% -- 8.00% 3.0 4.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11
15.00% 9.0 24.00% 8.0 22.00% 4.0 12.00% 13.0 11.00% 5.0 7.00% 1.0 0.00% 2.0
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11
17.00% -- 24.00% -- 14.00% -- 13.00% -- 10.00% -- 12.00% -- 4.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11
15.00% -- 23.00% -- 21.00% -- 13.00% -- 14.00% -- 6.00% -- 2.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Jim Gibbons [L]
R Bob Vander Plaats [L]
R Matt Schultz [L]
? Cary Gordon [L]
R Lee Harder
  Quad-City Times
R Spen
R Ralph Watts [L]
  River Cities' (IA) Reader
I Michael D. Elliott [L]
I Ed Fallon [L]
D Francis Thicke
R Steve Deace [L]
R Josh Byrnes [L]
R Greg Ganske [L]
R Jeff Kaufmann [L]
R David Johnson [L]
R Rick Bertrand [L]
R David Kerr
R Betty R. DeBoef [L]
R Mark A. Brandenburg [L]
R Jack Whitver [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name No Preference Herman Cain Gov. Sarah Palin Gov. Charles E. "Buddy" Roemer III Fred Karger Gov. Gary Johnson Donald Trump
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes147 (0.12%) 45 (0.04%) 23 (0.02%) 17 (0.01%) 10 (0.01%) 8 (0.01%) 5 (0.00%)
Margin-29,692 (-24.45%) -29,794 (-24.53%) -29,816 (-24.55%) -29,822 (-24.55%) -29,829 (-24.56%) -29,831 (-24.56%) -29,834 (-24.56%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 2.36%-- 0.00%-- 0.71%-- 0.00%-- -1.11%-- 0.00%--
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11
0.00% -- 0.00% 8.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11
0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
VIEW 13 MORE CANDIDATES

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/01/2012 Ron Paul Web Only Ad Mixed eng "Fake Mitt Romney" Endorses Ron Paul before Iowa Caucus   00:12:09 Homegrown Democrat 
12/28/2011 TVAd Issue eng Ron Paul: Wrong On Marriage   00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/27/2011 Radio Ad Mixed eng Vote Rogue  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
12/23/2011 Web Only Ad Issue eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake Comm#2 - FINAL REPLACEMENT  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/15/2011 Web Only Ad Attack eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake - Commercial #3 - NPR (Newt Paul Romney)  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/06/2011 Web Only Ad Issue eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake - Commercial #1  00:00:00 Homegrown Democrat 
11/22/2011 Sarah Palin TVAd Issue eng The Challenge  00:01:00 Homegrown Democrat 
07/06/2011 Michele Bachmann TVAd Biography eng Waterloo  00:00:00 Jason 
11/22/2010 Fred Karger TVAd Biography eng Independence Day  00:01:34 Homegrown Democrat 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jun 16, 2012 09:00pm News Ron Paul backers triumphant at Iowa GOP convention  Article Miro 
May 05, 2012 11:55am Analysis Ron Paul backers dominate Iowa GOP nominees for national convention  Article Craverguy 
Mar 15, 2012 07:00pm General Rick Santorum, Ron Paul On Track To Get Most Of Iowa's Delegates  Article Miro 
Jan 14, 2012 01:00pm News Rick Santorum: I might win Iowa caucuses recount  Article Scott³ 
Jan 05, 2012 08:00pm General Iowa Caucus Results Called Into Question  Article COSDem 
Jan 04, 2012 03:00pm Amusing Buddy Roemer's Self-Deprecating Tweets During 2012 Iowa Caucus  Article Nothing wrong, just gone 
Jan 04, 2012 01:40am Strategy Ron Paul May Have Secretly Won The Iowa Caucuses  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Jan 03, 2012 11:00pm Announcement Iowa GOP: No recount in case of close Iowa vote  Article COSDem 
Jan 03, 2012 03:00pm News A Frustrated Gingrich Looks Past Iowa and Lashes Back at Romney  Article Scott³ 
Jan 02, 2012 09:15pm General Gingrich: 'I don't think I'm going to win' Iowa  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Jan 02, 2012 05:00pm General Iowa Caucuses Spur Party Building While Often Erring on Nominee  Article Jason 
Jan 02, 2012 03:00pm Idiocy Ron Paul: Santorum is 'very liberal'  Article COSDem 
Jan 01, 2012 10:00pm News Bachmann plays gender card as Iowa GOP vote nears  Article Silver Dime 
Dec 30, 2011 12:15pm Video Newt Gingrich cries when asked about his mom  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Dec 28, 2011 02:00am News Sarah Palin group buys ads in Iowa urging voters to caucus for her  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Dec 27, 2011 06:15pm Announcement Iowa GOP moving vote-count to 'undisclosed location'  Article RP 
Dec 19, 2011 09:30pm News Iowa Republicans concerned about apparent hacker threat from Anonymous group  Article Homegrown Democrat 
Dec 19, 2011 06:50am Analysis Gingrich Collapses In Iowa, As Ron Paul Surges to the Front  Article Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! 
Dec 17, 2011 07:00pm Endorsement The Des Moines Register’s GOP caucus endorsement: Mitt Romney is best to lead  Article COSDem 
Dec 12, 2011 08:00pm Endorsement Ron Paul endorsed by University of Iowa student newspaper  Article Miro 
Dec 03, 2011 12:00am Contest Gingrich surge sets up key Iowa battle with Romney  Article Jason 
Nov 19, 2011 08:50pm News Romney on Iowa: "We intend to play"  Article Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! 
Nov 17, 2011 02:50pm General Ron Paul is for real in Iowa. Seriously.  Article Jason 
Nov 07, 2011 02:35pm News A Trio of Iowa Endorsements for Rick Santorum  Article La Fayette 
Oct 17, 2011 12:20pm Analysis Bachmann drops to last place in Iowa 2012 Presidential Power Rankings  Article Hikikomori Blitzkrieg! 
Oct 07, 2011 12:00pm Speculative Iowa's tentative caucus date is Jan. 3  Article TX DEM 
Sep 13, 2011 07:30am News Iowa GOP chair: Arizona’s defiance could cause Iowa to reschedule caucuses  Article TX DEM 
Aug 10, 2011 05:00pm General Sarah Palin is headed to Iowa State Fair on Friday  Article COSDem 
Aug 06, 2011 04:00pm Endorsement Bachmann picks up endorsements from 100 Iowa faith leaders  Article COSDem 
Jul 05, 2011 01:00pm General Newt Gingrich starting over, looks to Greg Ganske   Article COSDem 
Jun 29, 2011 04:00pm Endorsement Iowa Senator Brad Zaun Joins Team Bachmann as State Co-Chairman  Article COSDem 
Jun 09, 2011 03:00pm General Gingrich’s entire paid Iowa campaign team resigns  Article COSDem 
Jun 05, 2011 03:50pm Announcement GOP 2012 candidate Jon Hunstman to skip Iowa caucus  Article Craverguy 
May 25, 2011 08:05pm General Grassley: Likely no room in field for both Palin, Bachmann  Article COSDem 
May 16, 2011 08:20pm General Terry Branstad: Time to get Iowa campaign started   Article COSDem 
Apr 11, 2011 09:00pm General Michele Bachmann stares down heckler in Iowa  Article COSDem 
Apr 04, 2011 07:00pm General Michele Bachmann hires former Mike Huckabee Iowa political director   Article COSDem 
Mar 27, 2011 08:00pm General Herman Cain Wins TIR Straw Poll at Conservative Principles Conference  Article COSDem 
Mar 26, 2011 08:00pm General Michele Bachmann steals the show in Iowa  Article COSDem 
Mar 25, 2011 03:15pm Event Haley Barbour teary-eyed for unborn in Iowa  Article Brandon 
Mar 10, 2011 11:00pm General Rick Santorum could be unlikely Iowa force  Article COSDem 
Feb 07, 2011 09:00pm Election Guide Update on Iowa Republican caucus prospects  Article COSDem 
Jan 10, 2011 01:00pm General Iowa conservatives hope to exclude one 2012 GOP hopeful  Article RP 
Jun 15, 2010 04:00pm News Santorum plans fourth Iowa trip   Article COSDem 
Nov 06, 2009 02:30am General Pawlenty eyes 2012 presidential potential in Iowa  Article Jason 

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