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  IA US President - R Caucus
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Iowa > President
Parent RaceUS President - R Primary
OfficePresident
TypeRepublican Primary Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2011 - 12:00pm
Polls Open January 03, 2012 - 07:00pm
Polls Close January 03, 2012 - 07:15pm
Term Start January 20, 2013 - 12:00pm
Term End January 20, 2017 - 12:00pm
Turnout 21.02% Registered 3.99% Total Population
ContributorJason
Last ModifiedMiro January 19, 2012 08:17am
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
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[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/04/2008
NameBarack Obama Votes828,940 (53.93%)
Term01/20/2009 - 01/20/2013 Margin146,561 (+9.53%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameBarack Obama Votes822,544 (51.99%)
Term01/20/2013 - 01/20/2017 Margin91,927 (+5.81%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
RaceIA US President 11/06/2012
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 9.5000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
03/31/2010 01/03/2012
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Mitt Romney 30 ------
Newt Gingrich 1 ------
Ron Paul 9 1 2 --
Rick Santorum 10 1 ----
Leaning Call: Mitt Romney (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Mitt Romney (61.18%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
03/02/2010 01/01/2012

CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Sen. Rick Santorum Gov. Mitt Romney Rep. Ron Paul Rep. Newt Gingrich Gov. Rick Perry Rep. Michele Bachmann Ambassador Jon Huntsman, Jr.
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes29,839 (24.57%) 29,805 (24.54%) 26,036 (21.44%) 16,163 (13.31%) 12,557 (10.34%) 6,046 (4.98%) 739 (0.61%)
Margin0 (0.00%) -34 (-0.03%) -3,803 (-3.13%) -13,676 (-11.26%) -17,282 (-14.23%) -23,793 (-19.59%) -29,100 (-23.96%)
Predict Avg.14.07% 21.72% 22.14% 13.19% 9.47% 8.86% 1.93%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg12.93%-- 20.96%-- 19.19%-- 16.94%-- 10.11%-- 7.09%-- 1.58%--
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12		 18.00% 4.6 22.70% 5.5 22.40% 5.1 16.10% 0.6 9.60% 0.9 5.80% 6.0 1.80% 1.0
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12		 16.00% 5.0 22.00% -- 17.00% 1.0 15.00% 2.0 9.00% -- 8.00% -- 4.00% 2.0
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12		 18.00% 8.0 19.00% 1.0 20.00% 4.0 14.00% 1.0 10.00% -- 8.00% 3.0 4.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11		 15.00% 9.0 24.00% 8.0 22.00% 4.0 12.00% 13.0 11.00% 5.0 7.00% 1.0 0.00% 2.0
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11		 17.00% -- 24.00% -- 14.00% -- 13.00% -- 10.00% -- 12.00% -- 4.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11		 15.00% -- 23.00% -- 21.00% -- 13.00% -- 14.00% -- 6.00% -- 2.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Jim Gibbons [L]
R Bob Vander Plaats [L]
R Matt Schultz [L]
? Cary Gordon [L]
R Lee Harder
  Quad-City Times
R Spen
R Ralph Watts [L]
  River Cities' (IA) Reader
I Michael D. Elliott [L]
I Ed Fallon [L]
D Francis Thicke
R Steve Deace [L]
R Josh Byrnes [L]
R Greg Ganske [L]
R Jeff Kaufmann [L]
R David Johnson [L]
R Rick Bertrand [L]
R David Kerr
R Betty R. DeBoef [L]
R Mark A. Brandenburg [L]
R Jack Whitver [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name No Preference Herman Cain Gov. Sarah Palin Gov. Charles E. "Buddy" Roemer III Fred Karger Gov. Gary Johnson Donald Trump
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes147 (0.12%) 45 (0.04%) 23 (0.02%) 17 (0.01%) 10 (0.01%) 8 (0.01%) 5 (0.00%)
Margin-29,692 (-24.45%) -29,794 (-24.53%) -29,816 (-24.55%) -29,822 (-24.55%) -29,829 (-24.56%) -29,831 (-24.56%) -29,834 (-24.56%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 1.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 2.36%-- 0.00%-- 0.71%-- 0.00%-- -1.11%-- 0.00%--
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 1.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% 8.0 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo
Name Rep. Paul Ryan Mayor Rudy Giuliani Gov. Mike Huckabee Ben Lange Chief Justice Roy Moore Gov. Tim Pawlenty Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]
Uncertified Votes3 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%) 2 (0.00%)
Margin-29,836 (-24.56%) -29,837 (-24.57%) -29,837 (-24.57%) -29,837 (-24.57%) -29,837 (-24.57%) -29,837 (-24.57%) -29,837 (-24.57%)
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
R Robert Bacon [L]
R Shawn Hamerlinck [L]
R Randy Feenstra [L]
R Joel Fry [L]
MORE CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name Jared Blankenship Pat Buchanan Sen. John McCain Gov. Robert D. Ray Gov. Scott Walker Ralph Nader  
PartyRepublican Republican Republican Republican Republican Republican  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Uncertified Votes1 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%) 1 (0.00%)  
Margin-29,838 (-24.57%) -29,838 (-24.57%) -29,838 (-24.57%) -29,838 (-24.57%) -29,838 (-24.57%) -29,838 (-24.57%)  
Predict Avg.0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (65 from 22 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%-- 0.00%--  
Insider Advantage 
01/01/12-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
American Research Group 
12/29/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
12/31/11-01/01/12		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Selzer & Co. 
12/27/11-12/30/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
We Ask America 
12/29/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Marist Institute 
12/28/11-12/29/11		 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/01/2012 Ron Paul Web Only Ad Mixed eng "Fake Mitt Romney" Endorses Ron Paul before Iowa Caucus   00:12:09 Homegrown Democrat 
12/28/2011 TVAd Issue eng Ron Paul: Wrong On Marriage   00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/27/2011 Radio Ad Mixed eng Vote Rogue  00:00:30 Homegrown Democrat 
12/23/2011 Web Only Ad Issue eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake Comm#2 - FINAL REPLACEMENT  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/15/2011 Web Only Ad Attack eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake - Commercial #3 - NPR (Newt Paul Romney)  00:00:31 Homegrown Democrat 
12/06/2011 Web Only Ad Issue eng Sarah Palin's Iowa Earthquake - Commercial #1  00:00:00 Homegrown Democrat 
11/22/2011 Sarah Palin TVAd Issue eng The Challenge  00:01:00 Homegrown Democrat 
07/06/2011 Michele Bachmann TVAd Biography eng Waterloo  00:00:00 Jason 
11/22/2010 Fred Karger TVAd Biography eng Independence Day  00:01:34 Homegrown Democrat 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jun 16, 2012 09:00pm News Ron Paul backers triumphant at Iowa GOP convention  Article Miro 
May 05, 2012 11:55am Analysis Ron Paul backers dominate Iowa GOP nominees for national convention  Article Craverguy 
Mar 15, 2012 07:00pm General Rick Santorum, Ron Paul On Track To Get Most Of Iowa's Delegates  Article Miro 
Jan 14, 2012 01:00pm News Rick Santorum: I might win Iowa caucuses recount  Article Christie-Toomey '16 
Jan 05, 2012 08:00pm General Iowa Caucus Results Called Into Question  Article COSDem 
Jan 04, 2012 03:00pm Amusing Buddy Roemer's Self-Deprecating Tweets During 2012 Iowa Caucus  Article Thomas Walker 

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