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  MA US Senate - Special Election
RACE DETAILS
Parents > United States > Massachusetts > Senate Class I
OfficeSenate
Type Special Election
Filing Deadline 00, 2009 - 12:00pm
Polls Open January 19, 2010 - 06:00am
Polls Close January 19, 2010 - 07:00pm
Term Start February 04, 2010 - 05:00pm
Term End January 03, 2013 - 12:00pm
Turnout 53.31% Registered 34.67% Total Population
ContributorAndy
Last ModifiedPaul December 01, 2012 12:53am
Data Sources[Link]
[Link]
Description
LAST GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won09/25/2009
NamePaul G. Kirk, Jr. Votes1 (100.00%)
Term09/25/2009 - 02/04/2010 Margin1 (+100.00%)
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
  PartyDemocratic Won11/06/2012
NameElizabeth Warren Votes1,696,346 (53.74%)
Term01/03/2013 - 01/03/2019 Margin238,298 (+7.55%)
PRIMARY/OTHER SCHEDULE
Dec 08, 2009 MA US Senate - Special D Primary Martha Coakley
Dec 08, 2009 MA US Senate - Special R Primary Scott Brown
MAP

Embed Code
KEY RACE? 10.0000000000 Average
LEANING PREDICTIONS    Detail
Leaning Graph
08/26/2009 01/19/2010
CandidateSlightLeanStrongSafe
Scott Brown 25 7 1 --
Martha Coakley 21 3 1 3
Leaning Call: Scott Brown (50.00%)
Weighted Call: Scott Brown (69.99%)
MATCHUP POLL GRAPH
Poll Graph
09/21/2009 01/17/2010

CANDIDATES
Photo  
Name St. Sen. Scott Brown Attorney General Martha Coakley Joe Kennedy Write-In  
PartyRepublican Democratic Liberty Nonpartisan  
Website [Website] [Website] [Website]  
Certified Votes1,168,178 (51.86%) 1,060,861 (47.10%) 22,388 (0.99%) 1,155 (0.05%)  
Margin0 (0.00%) -107,317 (-4.76%) -1,145,790 (-50.87%) -1,167,023 (-51.81%)  
Predict Avg.57.08% 57.42% 18.83% 0.00%  
Cash On Hand $-- $-- $-- $--  
MATCHUP POLLS (18 from 11 pollsters)
Adj Poll Avg47.26%-- 45.96%-- 1.35%-- 0.00%--  
Insider Advantage 
01/17/10-01/17/10
52.20% -- 43.10% -- 1.90% -- 0.00% --
Research 2000 
01/15/10-01/17/10
48.00% 7.0 48.00% 1.0 3.00% 2.0 0.00% --
American Research Group 
01/15/10-01/17/10
52.00% 4.0 45.00% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
CrossTarget (R) 
01/17/10-01/17/10
51.90% 2.0 42.30% 3.8 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Public Policy Polling (D) 
01/16/10-01/17/10
51.00% 3.0 46.00% 1.0 0.00% -- 0.00% --
Merriman River Group (MRG) 
01/15/10-01/15/10
50.80% -- 41.20% -- 2.00% -- 0.00% --
ENDORSEMENTS
Endorsements
AENM Angry Russian
R Hikikomori Blitzkrieg!
D COMMONSENSE
  Cape Cod Times
D Sarnstrom
  Attleboro Sun Chronicle
  Springfield Republican
  New Bedford Standard Times
LBT Jed Ziggler
LBT Silver Dime
AnFed pghopper
R Joshua William Evans [L]
 

EVENTS
Start Date End Date Type Title Contributor

VIDEO ADVERTISEMENTS
Start Date Candidate Category Ad Tone Lng Title Run Time Contributor
01/11/2010 Martha Coakley TVAd Attack eng Martha Coakley "Lockstep-Republican" Ad  00:00:32 Silver Dime 

INFORMATION LINKS

NEWS
Date Category Headline Article Contributor
Jan 26, 2010 04:00pm Commentary Liberals tune out Mass. message  Article Brandon 
Jan 22, 2010 09:00pm Poll AFL-CIO Poll Shows Union Households Boosted Brown  Article ScottĀ³ 
Jan 22, 2010 07:00pm Poll Poll: Frustration with D.C. fueled GOP in Mass.  Article Penn Con 
Jan 21, 2010 03:00pm Analysis Youth Vote Collapsed in Massachusetts  Article ScottĀ³ 
Jan 20, 2010 11:00am Blog Entry Stock market dives on news of Brown victory  Article -- 
Jan 20, 2010 02:00am General Massachusetts is the canary in the Democrats' coal mine  Article Jason 

DISCUSSION
[View All
702
Previous Messages]
 
D:7102Dodge Landesman ( 0.0000 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:02:53 AM UTC0:00
There's only 6 days left. Even in politics, 6 days is not long at all. I think Brown could pull off a victory (though I still think Coakley will win by 4 or 5), and Rasmussen is usually stunningly accurate (If I'm not mistaken, it was 100% correct with the 2008 election for prez). And momentum is a powerful thing, and right now, it's on Brown's side. If there were three weeks or a month left to go, Brown would be in trouble. Now, with only 6 days, many people have formalized their opinions. I think Brown has a very good shot, thank god!

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:11:03 AM UTC0:00
6 days in politics is an eternity.

 
R:1823Eddie ( 26.8847 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:18:33 AM UTC0:00
According to the Weekly Standard Reporter, he really was pushed to the ground by a Coakley goon.

[Link]

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:22:57 AM UTC0:00
Well if a neoconservative opinion magazine says its true, it must be!

 
D:6086Jason ( 7718.4429 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:28:50 AM UTC0:00
Show me the bias.

 
R:373... ( 421.7247 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 06:14:04 AM UTC0:00
excelsior: For Brown, its too bad the election is not being held tomorrow. There's no way he will be able to withstand seven to ten days of withering assaults from the Dems. And the Dems are now fully mobilized and on a war footing.

Democrats going hardcore negative might turn voters off, or motivate the Republican base even further. Brown now has a gauntlet of attacks to withstand, but he's not dead. Of course, for the Republicans, even a close Senate race in Massachusetts is extremely hard to win.

 
I:114particleman ( 921.6604 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 06:36:41 AM UTC0:00
This is going to be the reverse of the Schmidt-Hackett special election. Single digit win for the party that should have won it running away. Everyone will declare victory and there will be much bloviating about what it means. Dems will spin that things aren't really that bad and the GOP will spin that if the dems can't hold MA easily every dem seat is now endangered. And 5 years from now no one will remember who Scott Brown was.

 
R:373... ( 421.7247 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 06:54:44 AM UTC0:00
Exactly right. Massachusetts is not like the rest of the country politically, and therefore will not be a tea leave- not even if Brown pulls this off.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 08:04:39 AM UTC0:00
particleman: This is going to be the reverse of the Schmidt-Hackett special election. Single digit win for the party that should have won it running away. Everyone will declare victory and there will be much bloviating about what it means. Dems will spin that things aren't really that bad and the GOP will spin that if the dems can't hold MA easily every dem seat is now endangered. And 5 years from now no one will remember who Scott Brown was.

I have a feeling that this is the correct answer.

 
D:1989RBH ( 1271.2517 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 09:03:03 AM UTC0:00
so Scott Brown is going to retire from politics and pull a gun on someone?

 
R:373... ( 421.7247 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 04:57:42 PM UTC0:00
When Democrats are losing an election, they suddenly start sounding less intelligent. Its the darnedest thing.

 
REFS:83-- ( 1800.0782 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 05:36:47 PM UTC0:00
Hmmm, that latest Rasmussen poll seems to corroborate the PPP poll. Still think Coakley's going to win, but like Particleman said, this will probably be the reverse of the Schmidt-Hackett race.

 
D:1107GavinBrown ( 1359.3580 points)
Wed, January 13, 2010 10:03:32 PM UTC0:00
Trident, this coming from your parties great intellectuals W, Palin, and Quayle?

 
R:7106presidentkyle@gmail.com ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 04:28:46 AM UTC0:00
Scott Brown has a good chance of winning, since people are so fed up with politics as usual.

 
IND:1196Monsieur ( 5890.8623 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 04:47:07 AM UTC0:00
Ted Kennedy would roll in his grave if this seat went to the GOP. Come on Coakley and Dems, get this together.

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 05:47:08 AM UTC0:00
Since when are conservative republicans not politics as usual.

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 07:20:15 PM UTC0:00
well lib policies are sickening even to the most democratic states

 
AM:7114Conservative for America. ( 76.1380 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 07:24:59 PM UTC0:00
i'm a conserviative democrat and even im very disappointed with that party

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 09:14:47 PM UTC0:00
Should i assume these Joe Kennedy folks actually think he's a Kennedy or are they just protesting Coakley and Brown?

 
R:6872Penn Con ( 249.0750 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 10:20:40 PM UTC0:00
One thing is consistent: Coakley is just about 50% or so in all the polls. If that is her ceiling, she'll narrowly win this three-way race.

 
D:411Picimpalious ( 1229.6810 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 10:22:43 PM UTC0:00
I'm now going to predict Brown wins with 49% just because that would be the result that would cause the most chaos.

 
R:250Mr. Politics ( 191.5293 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 10:36:54 PM UTC0:00
I think Coakley will win, not by a landslide but by enough that people will wonder what all the fuss was about.

 
D:6506TEXAN FOR HILLARY ( 0.0000 points)
Thu, January 14, 2010 11:37:40 PM UTC0:00
Well it depends on where u think the undecided voters go. Rasmussen and PPP say they will go to Brown. We'll have to see.

 
R:373... ( 421.7247 points)
Fri, January 15, 2010 12:54:20 AM UTC0:00
One more poll from Rasmussen or PPP showing Brown gaining in percentage and Coakley in the same place, and I think we're good to go.

 
D:2064TX DEM ( 3224.4231 points)
Fri, January 15, 2010 01:00:39 AM UTC0:00
RCP aren't doing an average for some reason, but Pollster has Coakley +6.4%