Early Jockeying Among the Democratic Presidential Contenders

The Democratic Party retained control of Congress during the presidency of George HW Bush. While the party pressed its domestic issues, Bush often concentrated on foreign crises. After sending the military to free Kuwait when it was occupied by Iraq, Bush's popularity rose to the 90% mark. Leading Democrats who had been considering a presidential candidacy (Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Bentsen, Sen. Rockefeller) saw it as futile and chose to sit out the 1992 race.

The field took shape very slowly in 1991. Sen. Tsongas announced his candidacy on 4/9/1991 and campaigned actively for five months while others tested the waters [NYT 4/10/1991]. As the debate over Clarence Thomas waged over the air waves and a jobs veto was sustained by Congress, other Democrats began to make their announcements. The situation was becoming critical, as the deadline for filing slates of delegates was looming in several states. Former Gov. Brown formed an exploratory committee on 9/3/1991 [NYT 9/4], which forced other contenders to decide. Sen. Kerrey announced the day following Brown that he was forming a committee [NYT 9/5/1991]. Gov. Wilder entered the race on 9/13 [NYT 9/14], followed by Sen. Harkin on the 15th [NYT 9/16/1991], Kerrey on the 30th [NYT 10/1], and Gov. Clinton on 10/3 [NYT 10/4/1991]. The field was unusual for the Democrats, as only Harkin appealled to the more liberal elements of the party while the others all sought a

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Early Jockeying Among the Democratic Presidential Contenders

The Democratic Party retained control of Congress during the presidency of George HW Bush. While the party pressed its domestic issues, Bush often concentrated on foreign crises. After sending the military to free Kuwait when it was occupied by Iraq, Bush's popularity rose to the 90% mark. Leading Democrats who had been considering a presidential candidacy (Gov. Cuomo, Sen. Bentsen, Sen. Rockefeller) saw it as futile and chose to sit out the 1992 race.

The field took shape very slowly in 1991. Sen. Tsongas announced his candidacy on 4/9/1991 and campaigned actively for five months while others tested the waters [NYT 4/10/1991]. As the debate over Clarence Thomas waged over the air waves and a jobs veto was sustained by Congress, other Democrats began to make their announcements. The situation was becoming critical, as the deadline for filing slates of delegates was looming in several states. Former Gov. Brown formed an exploratory committee on 9/3/1991 [NYT 9/4], which forced other contenders to decide. Sen. Kerrey announced the day following Brown that he was forming a committee [NYT 9/5/1991]. Gov. Wilder entered the race on 9/13 [NYT 9/14], followed by Sen. Harkin on the 15th [NYT 9/16/1991], Kerrey on the 30th [NYT 10/1], and Gov. Clinton on 10/3 [NYT 10/4/1991]. The field was unusual for the Democrats, as only Harkin appealled to the more liberal elements of the party while the others all sought a more moderate path for the future. The contenders' tardiness in announcing collapsed the normal campaign season, and by the time Brown announced his candidacy on 10/21, all contenders had raised one quarter of the amount Dukakis had raised by that point four years earlier [NYT 10/20/1991].

Clinton announced 10/3/1991
Tsongas announced 4/9/1991; suspended campaign 3/19/1992
Brown announced 10/21/1991
Rockefeller declined to run 8/7/1991
Kerrey announced on 9/30/1991; withdrew 3/4/1992
Doug Wilder announced 9/13/1991, withdrew 1/8/1992
Harkin announced 9/15/1991; withdrew 3/9/1992
Jesse Jackson declined to run 11/2/1991
Mario Cuomo declined to run 12/20/1991

Two events near the end of 1991 gave the Democratic Party hope for the future as it looked over a presidential field languishing in raising funds. First, the surprise election of Harris Wofford to the US Senate in a special election in Pennsylvania proved the wide public support for national health insurance. Second, Pat Buchanan announced that he would run against Pres. Bush in the Republican primaries, which had the potential to weaken him for the eventual Democratic nominee.

In the meantime, the Democratic field was set in stone. Gov. Cuomo announced that he would not run so that he could devote time to resolving his state's financial woes. Without him as the front-runner, the remaining contenders sought to absorb his nascent organizations in NH and other early primary states [NYT 12/21/1991].

Democratic leaders worried about the choice among what they considered to be second tier contenders. The early debates showed that Clinton "seemed the candidate most ready for prime time" [NYT 11/25 and 12/20/1991]. However, Arkansas Democrats began to criticize him because he had promised in 1990 that he would not run for president in 1992. The nickname "Slick Willie" was coined just prior to New Year's Day, as many Democrats in his home state did not see a path to victory and were cautious about making donations. At the same time, Sen. Kerrey had major problems both with his Senate staff and campaign staff, partially because he so often made decisions without consulting them [NYT 12/31/1991].

As the election year dawned, the Democratic field made its preparations for the primaries. Gov. Wilder pulled out of the race on 1/8/1992 so that he could devote more time to the financial woes of his state [NYT 1/9/1992]. Even prior to his withdrawal, Clinton had hired Wilder's media team from his 1989 campaign, and Clinton moved in to absorb the African American vote. The new unemployment statistics were released, showing an increase to the highest rate since 1983, which bolstered Clinton's television ads about the "forgotten middle class" [NYT 1/11/1992].

One year before inauguration day, Clinton had become the front-runner. He had succeeded in defining the key issue as the economy and was one of only two Democratic contenders with an economic plan in place. He took the lead in criticizing Pres. Bush on his Asian foreign policy and various elements of his domestic policy. His commercials about the middle class and getting America back to work were effective - polls showed that he had risen to a tie with Tsongas in NH. Clinton began to stumble one month into the new year. A tabloid ran a story that accused him of infidelity, and soon reporters were asking him about it. Soon, a woman named Gennifer Flowers claimed to have had a 12-year affair with Gov. Clinton. His denials and his accusation that Cuomo was acting like a member of the Mafia further weakened his standing in the polls [NYT 1/14-15, 18, 27, 29-30/1992].

But the other contenders were grasping for a way to get some traction. Kerrey's campaign remained vague on his stands but clear on his military record. His answers to questions on issues including abortion and his economic proposals were scattered and not concise enough to produce sound bites. When accusations came to light that Clinton had dodged the draft during the Vietnam conflict, Kerrey hoped to gain traction but felt it was improper to make it an issue [NYT 2/8/1992]. Instead, Kerrey brought Georgia's SOS Max Cleland, also a decorated war veteran, to NH to campaign for him and allow reporters to draw their own conclusions [NYT 2/9/1992]. Tsongas reluctantly hired consultants, who immediately improved his performance both on the stump and in debates. He soon moved back into the lead in New Hampshire polls [NYT 1/27/1992]. Harkin was counting on a win in Iowa to propel him to victory in NH; while he increased his visits to NH, reporters commented that he was unable to find anything new to say [NYT 2/1/1992].

Iowa Caucus

The traditional first test of the candidates was given a pass in 1992. Sen. Harkin spent $200,000 in his home state, hoping to garner over 60% of the vote. Other contenders mainly abandoned Iowa, attending only the Jefferson Jackson Dinner. Brown made a swing through the state, which had the effect of angering the Harkin supporters. A debate had been scheduled but was cancelled because the contenders were busy in NH and other states [NYT 1/13/1992]. Iowa Democrats had been keeping an eye on NH, too. While a poll in late 1991 showed Harkin leading in IA with 68% to Kerrey 10% and Clinton 5%, a poll published on 2/8/1992 showed Harkin leading with a reduced 54% to Clinton 16%, Kerrey 8%, Brown 5%, Tsongas 5%, and undecided 12% [NYT 2/9/1992]. However, Iowa Democrats came through for Harkin and gave him 77% of the vote. Uncommitted placed second with 12%, followed by Tsongas with 4%, Clinton and Kerrey with 3%, and Brown with 2% [NYT 2/11/1992].

New Hampshire Primary

Harkin's runaway win in Iowa raised the stakes in New Hampshire. Tsongas had regained the lead there, although his support remained weak. Clinton, Tsongas, and Kerrey all set themselves forth as the only person who could lead the Democrats to victory. Just as Tsongas moved into the lead, however, NH Democrats wondered openly about his health and his economic conservatism. [NYT 2/12/1992]. A new Boston Globe poll released on 2/15/1992 showed Tsongas leading in NH with 32% to Clinton's 25%, Harkin and Kerrey at 11%, and Brown with 5% [NYT 2/16/1992]. Both Clinton and Brown began running 30 minute ads because so little ad time was available. New Hampshire voters ended up giving Tsongas 33%, Clinton 25%, Kerrey 11%, Harkin 10%, Brown 8%, and Cuomo 4% on write-ins.

The Road to Super Tuesday

The New Hampshire result was a boost to Tsongas. In addition to a dramatic increase in contributions, Tsongas narrowed the gap in the polls. A NYT/CBS poll showed Clinton leading Tsongas nationally by a reduced margin of 29-24%; Brown was third with 10%. [NYT 2/22/1992]. In the Maine caucus on 2/22, Tsongas and Brown tied for first with 30%, followed by Clinton and uncommitted with 15% [NYT 2/23/1992].

South Dakota voted on 2/25. Kerrey and Harkin waged a battle to the death, as it was becoming increasingly clear that the loser would have to drop out of the race. A poll showed Kerrey leading with 26% to Clinton with 16%, Harkin with 15%, and Tsongas with 12% [NYT 2/23/1992]. Harkin performed well in a debate just before the primary, which gave him a boost. South Dakota Democrats gave Kerrey a major win with 40% to Harkin 25%, Clinton 19%, and Tsongas 10%.

Seven states voted on 3/3/1992. With large numbers of Democrats telling pollsters they were unhappy with their choices [NYT 3/2-3/1992], the candidates sought a way to appear more presidential and less desperate. Primaries were held in CO, GA, and MD; caucuses were held in ID, MN, UT, and WA. Clinton won a runaway victory in GA with 57%; Tsongas won MD and UT by a comfortable margin and won WA narrowly; Brown won a narrow 3-way race in CO; and Harkin won the ID and MN caucuses. At this point, the delegate count stood at Clinton 241, Uncommitted 223, Tsongas 118, Harkin 86, Brown 36, and Kerrey (who did not even place third anywhere on 3/3) 27 [NYT 3/4-6/1992].

The last stop on the way to Super Tuesday was South Carolina, which held its first Democratic primary on 3/7. The Democrats focused their attention on other states, leaving SC to Clinton as the South's favorite son. In the long run, it was a mistake, as the big news in the days leading up to Super Tuesday was Clinton's runaway win there with 68%. Wyoming held a caucus on the same day, and Clinton won there with 28% to Brown 23%, Harkin 14, and Tsongas 12 [NYT 3/9/1992].

Super Tuesday, 3/10/1992

Eleven states voted on Super Tuesday. Primaries were held in FL, LA, MA, MS, OK, RI, TN, and TX. Caucuses were held in DE, HI, and MO. Altogether, 783 delegates were at stake. With Kerrey and Harkin out of the race, the field had narrowed to Clinton, Tsongas, and Brown. Going into the voting, Clinton led the delegate count with 298 to Uncommitted 236, Tsongas 144, Harkin 86, Brown 57, and Kerrey 27 [NYT 3/10/1992]. Tsongas attacked Clinton from the right and focused on FL and TX. Brown campaigned with Jesse Jackson and attacked Clinton from the left. The result: Clinton won FL, HI, LA, MS, OK, TN, and TX; Tsongas won DE, MA, and RI; Uncommitted won MO; and Brown was shut out. Delegates chosen on Super Tuesday: Clinton 430, Tsongas 199, Uncommitted 50, and Brown 32 [NYT 3/12/1992].

Illinois and Michigan
While the delegate totals looked dire for Tsongas, he still saw a path to the nomination. As of Super Tuesday, Clinton had won 10 states, of which 8 came from the South. The remaining five Southern states would not be enough to carry him to victory. Clinton had won 62% of the vote in Southern states but only 24% elsewhere (Tsongas had won 47% of the vote elsewhere). Tsongas, who had won seven states already, thus needed to carry the large northeastern industrial states (IL, MI, OH, PA, NJ, and NY), followed by California. In the end, a week was not enough time for Tsongas; Clinton won IL with 51% to Tsongas 26% and Brown 15%. Clinton won MI with 48% to Brown 28% and Tsongas 18%. The cumulative delegate count was now Clinton 991, Uncommitted 563, Tsongas 423, and Brown 143 [NYT 3/19/1992].

The two weeks prior to the major primaries in NY and WI, two states voted. Tsongas suspended his campaign on 3/19, retaining his delegates but realizing that Clinton was headed for victory [NYT 3/20/1992]. CT, which often forecast the upcoming vote in NY, voted on 3/24. Exit polls showed that Tsongas would have carried CT; instead, Brown won a 37-36% victory over Clinton, with Tsongas winning 20%. Brown then won a runaway victory in the VT caucus on 3/31 with 46% to Uncommitted 25% and Clinton 17%.

New York and Wisconsin, 4/7/1992

Four primaries were held on 4/7/1992: KS, MN, NY, and WI. With a shift of momentum towards Brown, he began to take more eccentric steps to win free air time on the news. On 4/1/1992, Brown offered the VP slot on his potential ticket to Jesse Jackson, who did not expect the offer and did not accept [NYT 4/2/1992]. The offer turned out to be a major mistake. The large Jewish voting bloc in NY was incensed, still reeling from comments Jackson had made in his earlier campaigns for President. The result was a series of incidents in which Jewish voters heckled Brown publicly. In NY, where 244 delegates were available, no contender was fielding a full slate (Clinton had 186 candidates for delegate on the ballot and Brown just 19). The result in all-critical NY was dramatic: Clinton won the state with 41%, followed by Tsongas with 29% and Brown with 26%. Clinton also eked out narrow victories in WI and MN and won by a wide margin in KS. At this point, Clinton led the delegate count with 1,279 to Tsongas 520, Brown 272, and Uncommitted 618 [NYT 4/9/1992].

Pennsylvania (4/28) to California (6/2)
After Clinton's win in NY, his lead was insurmountable. Tsongas considered resuming his campaign after placing second in NY, but he was so far behind in delegates that it seemed pointless. Clinton began to look to the general election while Brown floundered. Clinton won the key state of Pennsylvania with 57% on 4/28. Although he was now marching to victory, half of the Democratic voters were unhappy with him. During this time, Ross Perot began to test the waters for his third-party campaign. He won a respectable third place in the Washington primary on 5/19 on write-ins, and by the time California and Ohio voted on 6/2, Democratic primary voters were as willing to support Perot as Clinton. Clinton managed a narrow win over Brown in his home state of California and won by a wide margin in the other primaries that day (key states were NJ and OH). The campaign ended in ND on 6/9, where Perot actually won the Democratic primary and even LaRouche won more votes than Clinton.

Democratic Primaries of 1988: [Link]

Democratic Primaries of 1996: [Link]

Democratic National Convention of 1992: [Link]

Popular Vote of 1992: [Link]

Electoral Vote of 1992: [Link]

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